Thanks to two different power outages at The 209 my TiVo tripped up on last night’s Idol taping. So instead of the full hour I got a ten minute chunk in the middle, and the last fifteen minutes. But it was enough to confirm what I was feeling about this group of three. All of them are talented, professional and eminently deserving of the title “The Next American Idol”. I doubt there’s ever been a Top 3 this good. Further, I doubt there’s ever been a Top 3 that was so up in the air. Melinda is assured a spot in the finale thanks to Simon, but cases can be made for either Blake or Jordin. It’s really just a matter of whose fanbase comes up more in the clutch.

If I had to judge who should join Melinda, based solely on what I saw last night, I’d give it to Blake. He was the only one of the three to perform a new song in the Contestants choice round, he foreshadowed a great pop presence in his vocal for the Maroon 5 hit “This Love”, and he was energetic, fun and inventive all night. Jordin, on the other hand, seemed frazzled. Her banter with the judges was cringe-inducing and she seemed lethargic and unfocused during both her viewer question with Ryan and her performance of “She Works Hard For The Money”. I never doubt her voice; she is consistently one of the top vocalists each week, I question her passion. Like any 17 year-old girl her mood is constantly changing. I can’t begin to imagine how she’s keeping her hormones in check during all this madness. But the problem with her age has always been her inability to hide her boredom (e.g. Weeks 5-8). Maybe boredom isn’t the right word. Indifference? Apathy? Apathy is probably more suitable. Jordin either runs hot or cold with her performances, and while I doubt it’s going to cost her in this competition, it’s definitely something we should watch out for in the future.

Since the Top 3 is so up in the air, and even TiVo-blooping fails to appropriately measure who should get the axe (no one was below two-bloops, and no one was perfect), it’s time to try a new way of predicting the results. American Idol, for all it’s spontaneity and surprises, is fairly predictable in its finality. The same types of people tend to win again and again. By analyzing the Top 3 from the first five season it’s fairly easy to see who will be kicked off tonight, and who will win next week. So let’s take a look back at the past sets of Top 3 and see if we can’t get a handle on the fates of Jordin and Blake.

SEASON ONE

Top 3: Justin Guarini, Kelly Clarkson, Nikki McKibbin

Finalists: Justin and Kelly

Winner: Kelly Clarkson

Season 1 is the most like Season 6. Jordin has been compared to Kelly for two months now (even Kelly admitted it on Ellen last week). They’re young, energetic, emotional, fresh-faced and beloved by the tweener set. Melinda is much like Justin, the voice is technically perfect, the performances are a constant joy to watch, and yet nothing about them screams AMERICAN IDOL. At this point, much as we love Mindy Doo, what kind of record will she make? Who will buy it? Isn’t she suffering from Taylor Hicks syndrome a bit? And obviously, Blake and Nikki are kindred spirits. Same defiant musical tastes, same predilection for wild hair colors, same awesome stage presence. All things being equal, Season 1 supports Melinda and Jordin.

SEASON ONE Prediction: Blake gets the axe, Jordin is The Next AI.

SEASON TWO

Top 3: Clay Aiken, Kimberly Locke, Ruben Studdard

Finalists: Ruben and Clay

Winner: Ruben Studdard

Season 2 is a bit of a haze with me, as I don’t remember Kimberly Locke at all, and this season was adversely affected by America pulling a Cher Horowitz and calling “Project!” on the woebegone Clay. However, I can wring some comparisons. Clay always had the powerhouse voice coming from the slightly odd packaging. That’s Melinda to a “T”, what with her stout body, missing neck and awkward facial contortions. They were both the least likely to be embraced, based solely on aesthetics, yet America looked past that and supported them. Ruben was the lovable large body, an easy comparison for Jordin. Both have voices that are warm, engaging and big. This must mean that Blake is the Kimberly, but since I can’t vouch for that, I’ll just move on.

SEASON TWO Prediction: Blake gets the axe, Jordin is The Next AI.

SEASON THREE

Top 3: Fantasia Barrino, Diana DeGarmo, Jasmine Trias

Finalists: Fantasia and Diana

Winner: Fantasia Barrino

Season 3 is the biggest anomaly in the show’s run. Jasmine had no business being in the semi-finals, Diana was a nothing personality from day one and, by any measure, Fantasia should have been competing on Muppet Idol instead of American Idol (and even then you know she would have lost to Fozzie Bear). This is also the first year that the Top 3 was all comprised of the same sex, which was probably a reaction from seeing two boys in the Season 2 finale. Melinda is probably the Diana here, both were very pretty, solid voices with personalities lacking the fire or magnetism of the other two. But that’s where easy comparisons end. If you base the popularity of Fantasia on the electricity of her performances, than Blake is her counterpart. His stage antics are always mesmerizing (case in point: You Give Love A Bad Name). Yet Blake doesn’t have nearly as interesting a voice as Fantasia. On the other hand, Jordin is so NOT Fantasia. Fantasia always gave off a sense of world-weariness. Like she had been around and wasn’t going to take anyone’s shit. Jordin is young and naïve beyond all belief, which makes her more suitable as the Jasmine Trias of Season 6. The only problem there is that Jasmine sucked and Jordin does not. But like I said, Season 3 was an anomaly. We will never have a Top 3 like that again, nor will we ever have a winner like Fantasia Barrino. This does not bode well for the beatboxer

SEASON THREE Prediction: Jordin gets the axe, Blake is The Next AI.

SEASON FOUR

Top 3: Bo Bice, Vonzell Solomon, Carrie Underwood

Finalists: Carrie and Bo

Winner: Carrie Underwood

Here is where comparisons get back on track. Jordin is so the Bo Bice it’s scary. They both have powerful voices that sound great in almost every genre (though obviously not Arena Rock in Jordin’s case), and were shoo-ins for the finals from the beginning of the season. Carrie is probably the most talented vocalist American Idol has ever seen, which makes her very much like the resident pro Melinda Doolittle. Though they don’t match up looks wise, Carrie never traded on her beauty to get votes (heck, most of the time she wore awful country dresses that did nothing for her figure). Further, Carrie always seemed like a robot to me. She walked on the stage, hit all the notes, sounded great and then went into a corner to power down. Doesn’t that remind you a lot of Melinda? She’s so good that even if she were Liberace her voice would still overpower her personality. Also, and most importantly for Melinda, you knew from the very beginning what type of sound you would get from Carrie’s albums. If I had to appropriate that feeling for Melinda, I’d say we’re in for a series of great throwback, Motown-style albums (which I would totally buy). Unfortunately, this makes Blake the Vonzell. It’s more apropos than one might first expect. Both were inherently lovable. Both had to rise above suspicions that their voices weren’t as good as the rest of the contestants. And both were gorgeous people who leveraged their hotness to get votes. Of course, both were also tossed aside in favor of the robot perfectionist and the larger-than-life voice. So there’s that.

SEASON FOUR Prediction: Blake gets the axe, Melinda is The Next AI.

SEASON FIVE

Top 3: Taylor Hicks, Katharine McPhee, Elliot Yamin

Finalists: Taylor and Kat

Winner: Taylor freakin’ Hicks

I hate the comparison to this year because it means Melinda is the Taylor. And it has to be that way, unfortunately, as Jordin is SO the McPheever of Season 6 and Blake is Elliot Yamin like Mike Tyson was Clubber Lang. Let’s start at the end and go backwards. Elliot and Blake, admirable scrappers who unexpectedly garnered more and more support each week. When we first met Blake, beatboxing through the sloggy Seattle auditions, did anyone think he’d get this far? Sure his hair was cool and he could do crazy things with his mouth, but Top 3 on a singing competition? Hardly. But like Elliot proved, you can be a weird choice and still be the right one. I saw Elliot and Taylor perform on Ellen on consecutive days and Elliot blew Taylor out of the water. Elliot was always great to watch; you never knew if his forehead vein would unexpectedly burst, covering the judges in blood. You never knew if he would break down crying mid-song. And he constantly made Paula weep, a reaction that’s ALWAYS fun to see. Truly, he had the biggest upside of the Top 3. Now compare that to Blake’s place relative to the divas. Melinda and Jordin have great voices, but at this point, can they really surprise us? Don’t you get the feeling we’ve seen all we’re gonna see from them? But Blake continues to improve, with his evermore creative integration of beatboxing and straight vocals, to his fashion sense (tux shirt notwithstanding) to his arrangements to his dancing. He’s a lot like a Justin Timberlake record; you never know what the next track will bring. Will it be a crazy, syncopated dance track, a contemplative revenge ballad, a funky dive bar juke joint, a soul song, etc. That’s why out of this year’s Top 3, his debut CD will be the most interesting (and probably the most polarizing, as well).

Jordin and Kat are an easy alliance. Both are beautiful, young singers with wide-ranging, sexy vocals. Not to mention both are very tall. Kat gained steam as her season went along, with her apex being the writhing on the floor rendition of KT Tunstall’s (love her) “Black Horse, Cherry Tree” and the motionless perfection of “Somewhere Over The Rainbow”. That sounds a lot like Jordin’s exquisite “I Who Have Nothing” and her supreme “Broken Wing” where we watched Martina McBride realize she is useless after Jordin crushed HER OWN song. Of course, if this comparison is accurate, it means she’s the rightful winner who will be robbed of the crown by a stuttering buffoon. And even more frightening, that makes Melinda the buffoon.

Of which she most certainly is not. However, they Melinda and Taylor do share some character traits. Both are older than the normal AI contestant. Both are throwback vocalists. Both have muddled genre loyalty (hence Taylor’s failure to gain traction on the charts). Both can’t dance. The only thing that really sets them apart is that Simon loves Melinda and hated Taylor (also Taylor sucks and Melinda does not). The difference in my eyes, however, is simple: I want to see Melinda in the finals and believe that she would be a worthy winner (whereas I wanted Taylor to suffer a very painful poker to the junk accident). I’d be delighted to see Melinda as The Next American Idol (and not just because I picked her to win 12 weeks ago).

SEASON FIVE Prediction: Blake gets the axe, Melinda is The Next AI.

So to recap, if history tells us anything, based on four out of the five previous seasons Blake gets the axe tonight. And Jordin and Melinda split the Best in Show at two seasons a piece, which means they’re both locks to make the Finale. However, since Melinda would have “won” the last two seasons it seems uncertain that the producers and the audience would blindly continue down that path. I think it’s time for a shake-up. Time for a throwback winner. And with all the talk of Jordin being the second-coming of Kelly, it’s easy to think that the next American Idol has already been crowned, and that Ryan is going to need a step ladder to put the tiara on her.

Peace out Blake, the final will be a lot less fun without you.

Bangarang!

CLICK HERE to subscribe to TheJay.com RSS Feed