BEST PICTURE

• ATONEMENT
• JUNO
• MICHAEL CLAYTON
• NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
• THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Will Win: No Country For Old Men - Not as socially retarded as There Will Be Blood, just as third-act annoying as Atonement but with better bonafides, a story structure Michael Clayton would mercy kill a thai hooker for, Juno is a comedy and comedy’s never win. The film definitely has it’s problems: the ending is too abrupt, it takes too long to figure out that the movie is about Tommy Lee Jones and not Josh Brolin, Woody’s character gets a short shrift, Anton Chigurh is a hair too over the top and there needed to be at least 10 minutes more of Kelly MacDonald talking in her deliciously cute Texas twang, but it’s a beautiful, lyrical film that lingers in your mind far after the lights come up. Moreover, the Academy usually doesn’t honor films like this. Ten years ago this would be a gimme for Atonement, but after Crash and Million Dollar Baby, the Academy is OK with giving its Big Kahuna to a dark flick. That may be the only good thing the career of Paul Haggis has ever wrought.

Should Win: Juno - The populist part of me says that whichever film is the clear cut national favorite should win the award. Juno more than doubles the domestic box office of all the other nominees, and I believe comes close to eclipsing the TOTAL B.O. of the other films COMBINED. It earned that money not off of star power or a huge marketing campaign, but from word of mouth and audience love. Hell, even the soundtrack is kicking ass. But not unlike the Presidential Race, the Academy belongs to the Industry not to the people, which is why The Coen Bros. should start prepping their speech and Juno can go on to save the rainforest set to the soundtrack of The Mars Volta.

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BEST DIRECTOR

• Julian Schnabel, THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
• Jason Reitman, JUNO
• Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON
• Joel and Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
• Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Will Win: The Coen Bros. - For all the reasons that No Country deserves Best Picture, these guys deserve Best Director. They hit their creative peak in their 11th movie, delivering a powerhouse crime movie that is as intense as any thriller in a decade! They made Texas look interesting without football, resurrected Josh Brolin, got Tommy Lee Jones out of woman-in-jeopardy thriller hell, and gave forth unto this world the 2nd greatest movie villain of the modern era. And for doing that, well, they get an award.

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson - It seems easy to deliver a good movie when you have Daniel Day-Lewis as your lead. But, the task gets exceedingly more difficult when it’s a three hour movie about oil drilling at the turn of the century which has no love story or any hottie to speak off, has a villain as a the hero, and a whiny preacher kid as the antagonist, and there are whole chunks of film where no one speaks. It’s a miracle the film was even watchable. PTA should win this thing simply for getting me to finally forgive him for Magnolia.

Should Also Win: Ben Affleck - When you’re a reviled leading man chased off the screen by the entire movie-going public and then turn around and make a gripping detective movie where your mongoloid kid brother is acting against Ed Harris and Morgan Freeman and pulling it off, critics say your depiction of Boston was more spot-on than Scorsese’s and you give the inside track for Best Supporting Actress Oscar race to a comPLETE nobody, you DESERVE some recognition. Also, was the bomb in Phantoms, yo!

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BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• George Clooney, MICHAEL CLAYTON
• Daniel Day-Lewis, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
• Johnny Depp, SWEENEY TODD
• Tommy Lee Jones, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
• Viggo Mortensen, EASTERN PROMISES

Will Win: DDL - Let’s say you have a nomination, and I have a nomination, and I have Daniel Day-Lewis. See here, that’s Daniel Day Lewis. My Daniel Day-Lewis reaches all the way across the room, goes right into your Oscar ceremony and starts to drink up your award. I drink your Academy Award. I DRINK IT UP!

Should Win: DDL - DRAINAGE!!!!!! Drainage, my dear boy! (See above.)

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BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Cate Blanchett, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
• Julie Christie, AWAY FROM HER
• Marion Cotillard, LA VIE EN ROSE
• Laura Linney, THE SAVAGES
• Ellen Page, JUNO

Will Win: Who gives a shit? Ugh, fine, Julie Christie, but only because old actors give fun, rambling, incoherent speeches. Just ask Peter O’Toole. Beyond that, nobody can even pronounce Marion Cotillard’s name, nobody saw The Savages, Cate Blanchett didn’t win for this perf the first time and she was better in the Dylan movie, anyway, and Ellen Page was, honest to blog, not as good as you remember. Sure, she was charming, for shizzle, but the risk factor on that movie was SO LOW. All she had to do was show up on set, get into wardrobe and not stutter and she was coming off brilliant. You’re saying two hundred other acerbic teen actors couldn’t have done just as good a job? Hell, I’ll give you one to start: Alia Shakwat, Michael Cera’s cousin crush Maebe from Arrested Development.

Should Win: Since we can’t give an Oscar to Megan Fox’s tummy, or to Marisa Tomei’s great older chick boobs, and Angelina Jolie was great, but in a movie too boring to sit through, I’ll say I wouldn’t complain if Amy Adams got recognized for her ultra-charming perf in Enchanted. And I personally LOVED Keira Knightley in Atonement, but then again, I have actual taste.

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BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Casey Affleck, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES…
• Javier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
• Hal Holbrook, INTO THE WILD
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
• Tom Wilkinson, MICHAEL CLAYTON

Will Win: Javier Bardem - Let me answer that question by asking you to watch this short clip without crapping your pants.

Should Win: In any other year I’d give it to Tom Wilkinson, who gave the type of thoroughly crazy performance this category was MADE for, or to PSH, who was the best thing in a bad movie (always a good reason to give someone this award), but no, this year is all about Anton Chigurh. Trust me, friend-o.

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BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Cate Blanchett, I’M NOT THERE
• Ruby Dee, AMERICAN GANGSTER
• Saoirse Ronan, ATONEMENT
• Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE
• Tilda Swinton, MICHAEL CLAYTON

Will Win: Tilda Swinton - The Michael Clayton groundswell needs to be justified somwhere, and this is the ticket. Tilda is legit good in the flick, is the reason Clooney comes off well in the closing scene and has been a very good actress for a very long time. Also, people know who she is. Can you name one other movie or TV show Amy Ryan has EVER been in? The Academy cannot give her this award when her director wasn’t nominated. It just doesn’t make sense.

Should Win: Amy Ryan - The Best Supporting Actress race is always unpredictable because there are no clear rules for winning. They like to award fun performances and goofy actresses (Tomei, Mira Sorvino), kids (Anna Paquin), newcomers (J-Huds), established stars who don’t have the drawing power to get a Best Actress win (Catherine Zeta-Jones), squinty chicks (Renee), and Kim Basinger. So why not give it to Amy Ryan? She was fantastic, after all.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• JUNO
• LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
• MICHAEL CLAYTON
• RATATOUILLE
• THE SAVAGES

Will Win: Juno - The copy writes itself. “Former Stripper Wins Academy Award For Writing”. Only Hollywood could make that shit up and call it cool.

Should Win: Juno - That being said, Lars and the Real Girl is slight, Michael Clayton is a mess, Ratatouille is charming because of it’s animation not its writing and again, people, NO ONE has seen The Savages. Hell, I’d bet dimes to dollars the majority of America thinks its a documentary about the kid from Wonder Years. As much as Juno is cutesy and small, it’s also hella charming, very confident in its story, creates interesting, original characters and has the best exchange in any movie all year.

Juno: Cause you’re, like, the coolest person I’ve ever met, and you don’t even have to try, you know…

Bleeker: I try real hard, actually.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• ATONEMENT
• AWAY FROM HER
• THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
• NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
• THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Will Win: No Country For Old Men - It’s the most classicly well-written film of the year. No more needs be said.

Should Win: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - Because it was the fifth film of the series and I felt like I finally GOT the world (even though I’m a Potter Head), because it successfully condensed a horridly angsty 800 page book into a gripping two hour entertainment and because the climax was Hans Gruber dueling with Drexl Spivey! “Now I know I’m pretty, but I’m not as pretty as a couple of AVADA KEDAVRA’S!”

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The unimportant categories:

Best Cinematography: There Will Be Blood

Best Art Direction: Atonement

Best Hair: Patrick Dempsey (Tom Hank’s Hair boos, gets wildly drunk at the Governer’s Ball and hits on Miley Cyrus)

Best Costume Design: Elizabeth, The Golden Age

Best Sound: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Sound Editing: No Country For Old Men

Best VFX: Transformers

Best Douchebag: Jack Nicholson (angered for being snubbed for his mailed-in work in The Bucket List)

Best Make Up: Pirates 3

Best Foreign Language Film: Mongol

Best Cleavage: Katherine Heigl (Hey, I hate her but I’m not IMMUNE!)

Best Animated Movie: Ratatouille

The Host - Jon Stewart: Solid B-

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Those are the picks to win the pools. Good luck kids, and have a great Oscar show!

(NOTE: My annual Things Overheard on the Oscars Red Carpet will be up first thing Monday Morning.)

Bangarang!