There are many proven scientific ways of determining a film’s box office potential. Star power, strength of schedule, cool title, total number of naked boobies, franchise potential, genre, the presence of a precocious boy who can see dead people, etc. My particular method of determining box office potential is rather simple: I look at the movie poster and decide based solely on the image, whether I want to see the movie or not. I take in all the factors (who’s in it, what studio, release date, et al), and weigh them appropriately, but when it comes down to it, if I like the poster I’m seeing the movie.

Jessica Alba and Paul Walker into bathing suits super-imposed over shots of the Caribbean and high speed boats? Yep, that’ll do. A giant, haunting close-up of Zhang Zi Yi’s Geisha-‘d face? Color The Jay intrigued. Kurt Russell holding two guns in the air while all of Chinatown explodes below him? That’s some Big Trouble The Jay can get into. Now on the other hand, The Rock in a football uniform holding a Pomeranian next to a girl in a tutu? Might not be up my alley. Jason Lee’s constipated face looking down at three CGI Shitmonks? Skip and Flame Online! And Ben Stiller getting stung by a jellyfish, while always enjoyable seeing him get humiliated and attacked by wild sea creatures, does nothing to make me want to see another entry in his long line of “hysterical yelling fits, but not in the awesome Al Pacino-way” films.

I’m a simple moviegoer. Show me a couple cool looks at some movie stars, drop a witty tagline, highlight with some nice colors and give me the info I need about the flick. That’s all you have to do to make a poster that will get me to see the movie.

Let’s take a look at the poster for the new Rob Reiner feel-good dramedy “The Bucket List” (quick plot summary: Jack and Morgan are dying, so they make a list of all the things they wanted to do before they die and set out to do them. In the process they become “good men”, as is necessary in any Jack Nicholson feel good movie.), and see if we can determine the movie’s box office potential.

Let’s start with what Jack brings to the table:

• Jack’s smiling face: + 8 million
• Jack in sunglasses: + 14 million
• Jack playing his age: + 10 million
• Jack looking mischievous: + 22 million
• Jack in an adult comedy without Helen Hunt: + The Jay’s eternal gratitude

Now let’s do Morgan Freeman:

• Morgan looking God-like: +5 million
• Morgan potentially narrating the movie: + 13 million
• Morgan in denim for all the ladies: + 9 million
• Morgan without Ashley Judd: + 17 million
• Morgan not standing next to Clint Eastwood: + Thank the dear lord baby Jesus!

Let’s Note The Detractions:

• Directed by Rob Reiner: - 7 million
• Co-Starring Rob Morrow: - 4 million (stick with the Krumholtz, Northern Exposure)
• Absence of younger-skewing girl hottie: - 14 million
• Remembering the last Rob Reiner adult dramedy was The Story Of Us: - 17 million

Add In The Intangibles:

• Blue Sky background that appeals to older people (aka the AARP Factor): + 10 million
• Combination of two exceedingly likeable actors: + 19 million
• Getting to hear Jack and Morgan’s voices together in the same scene: + 12 million
• Old Men re-gaining their youth is in vogue right now (hello, Wild Hogs): + 9 million
• The potential to do A Few Good Men quotes and Shawshank quotes at the same time: + OH YEAH!
• What’s a holiday season without a feel good Jack Nicholson movie? + 36 million
• Also, seriously, the poster is just fun to look at: + 7 million

And Come Up With A Final Analysis:

I once wrote this of the iconic As Good As It Gets Poster:

How can you look at this poster and not want to see this movie. It tells you absolutely nothing about the film, nor anything about Jack’s character, though none of that matters. As long as you have Jack’s giant head and laconic smile on your poster, the movie will be a hit.

Now add that to the awesomeness that is Morgan Freeman and this movie is destined to make buckets of money (pun intended). The trailer looks great, the poster is infectious fun and the release date is perfect for this kind of movie. If it does less than $150 million, the Golden Globe for Best Comedy and sleeper Oscar nods for Best Actor, Supporting Actor and Picture, somebody screwed up. It’s impossible to go wrong with Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman having fun together. Who doesn’t want to see that? They could have a phone book read-off and it would still do $20 million opening weekend. And I bet the poster for that movie would be just as cool.

If you had any reservations about this movie’s worth, watch the trailer and tell me if there’s any chance you’re NOT seeing it:

Didn’t think so.

Bangarang!