There are many proven scientific ways of determining a film’s box office potential. Star power, strength of schedule, cool title, total number of naked boobies, franchise potential, genre, the presence of a precocious boy who can see dead people, etc. My particular method of determining box office potential is rather simple: I look at the movie poster and decide based solely on the image, whether I want to see the movie or not. I take in all the factors (who’s in it, what studio, release date, et al), and weigh them appropriately, but when it comes down to it, if I like the poster I’m seeing the movie.

Jessica Alba and Paul Walker into bathing suits super-imposed over shots of the Caribbean and high speed boats? Yep, that’ll do. A giant, haunting close-up of Zhang Zi Yi’s Geisha-‘d face? Color The Jay intrigued. Kurt Russell holding two guns in the air while all of Chinatown explodes below him? That’s some Big Trouble The Jay can get into. Now on the other hand, The Rock in a football uniform holding a Pomeranian next to a girl in a tutu? Might not be up my alley. Jason Lee’s constipated face looking down at three CGI Shitmonks? Skip and Flame Online! And Ben Stiller getting stung by a jellyfish, while always enjoyable seeing him get humiliated and attacked by wild sea creatures, does nothing to make me want to see another entry in his long line of “hysterical yelling fits, but not in the awesome Al Pacino-way” films.

I’m a simple moviegoer. Show me a couple cool looks at some movie stars, drop a witty tagline, highlight with some nice colors and give me the info I need about the flick. That’s all you have to do to make a poster that will get me to see the movie.

Let’s take a look at the poster for the new Rob Reiner feel-good dramedy “The Bucket List” (quick plot summary: Jack and Morgan are dying, so they make a list of all the things they wanted to do before they die and set out to do them. In the process they become “good men”, as is necessary in any Jack Nicholson feel good movie.), and see if we can determine the movie’s box office potential.

Let’s start with what Jack brings to the table:

- Jack’s smiling face: + 8 million
- Jack in sunglasses: + 14 million
- Jack playing his age: + 10 million
- Jack looking mischievous: + 22 million
- Jack in an adult comedy without Helen Hunt: + The Jay’s eternal gratitude

Now let’s do Morgan Freeman:

- Morgan looking God-like: +5 million
- Morgan potentially narrating the movie: + 13 million
- Morgan in denim for all the ladies: + 9 million
- Morgan without Ashley Judd: + 17 million
- Morgan not standing next to Clint Eastwood: + Thank the dear lord baby Jesus!

Let’s Note The Detractions:

- Directed by Rob Reiner: – 7 million
- Co-Starring Rob Morrow: – 4 million (stick with the Krumholtz, Northern Exposure)
- Absence of younger-skewing girl hottie: – 14 million
- Remembering the last Rob Reiner adult dramedy was The Story Of Us: – 17 million

Add In The Intangibles:

- Blue Sky background that appeals to older people (aka the AARP Factor): + 10 million
- Combination of two exceedingly likeable actors: + 19 million
- Getting to hear Jack and Morgan’s voices together in the same scene: + 12 million
- Old Men re-gaining their youth is in vogue right now (hello, Wild Hogs): + 9 million
- The potential to do A Few Good Men quotes and Shawshank quotes at the same time: + OH YEAH!
- What’s a holiday season without a feel good Jack Nicholson movie? + 36 million
- Also, seriously, the poster is just fun to look at: + 7 million

And Come Up With A Final Analysis:

I once wrote this of the iconic As Good As It Gets Poster:

How can you look at this poster and not want to see this movie. It tells you absolutely nothing about the film, nor anything about Jack’s character, though none of that matters. As long as you have Jack’s giant head and laconic smile on your poster, the movie will be a hit.

Now add that to the awesomeness that is Morgan Freeman and this movie is destined to make buckets of money (pun intended). The trailer looks great, the poster is infectious fun and the release date is perfect for this kind of movie. If it does less than $150 million, the Golden Globe for Best Comedy and sleeper Oscar nods for Best Actor, Supporting Actor and Picture, somebody screwed up. It’s impossible to go wrong with Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman having fun together. Who doesn’t want to see that? They could have a phone book read-off and it would still do $20 million opening weekend. And I bet the poster for that movie would be just as cool.

If you had any reservations about this movie’s worth, watch the trailer and tell me if there’s any chance you’re NOT seeing it:

Didn’t think so.

Bangarang!

All the best, brightest and most make fun-able celebrities hit the red carpet for the 64th Annual Golden Globes on Monday. As always, I had spies on the scene recording the secret thoughts of the stars. Let’s see out what they had to say.

Sacha Baron Cohen: I swear to G-d I will knife the first sodded person who asks for a high five. Speaking of, where’s that Ryan Seacrest chap.

Patrick Dempsey: How’s my hair?

Jennifer Hudson: And I am telling you… suck my left tit, Bitch-once! American Idol, represent!

Evangeline Lilly: I am so glad I left the hobbit back on the island. Now where’s that McDreamy guy?

Renee Zellweger: Dammit, did I forget to sew my eyes open today? I knew I forgot to do something. Ah well, hopefully no one will notice.

Isaiah Washington: My agent says I need a nicer name for “faggot”, cause all that faggot talk is bad for my nice guy image. So what’s better? Cocksucker? Nah. Dick Licker? Too literal. Pussy Hater? Too negative. Purple-headed Nob Slobber? Yeah, that’s the one. I did not call that faggot T.R. a Purple-Headed Nob Slobber. But I did call Dempsey a pansy. Next question!

George Clooney: Alright Timberlake, here’s the game. First to five starlets wins. And I’ll even give you a two limoncello head start. Ready? Go!

Justin Timberlake: Guess who’s having sex with anyone he wants tonight? This guy!

Cameron Diaz: Cry me a river… cry me a river. Cry me a river, yeah.

Zach Braff: Dammit, I forgot to put on my anti-douche cream. Now I’ll never be able to make out with Jessica Alba and then whine about it on my blog tomorrow. My life sucks. (Cue pompous indie rock song)

Jack Nicholson: What year is it? Seriously, I have no idea. These things all look the same. Maybe I should take my sunglasses off. On second thought, screw that, I’m Jack. I can do whatever I want. And you know what? I’m nailing that Swank person tonight. Is she a boy? Is she a girl? What I’m saying is this: when you’re facing some free ass, what’s the difference?

Geena Davis: Has anyone seen my career? I think I dropped it. It’s about six feet tall, a hundred and forty pounds, used to be the President? Anybody? Please.

Dame Helen Mirren: Oh Streep, I finally have the better of you. Long live the Queen, bitch!

Mel Gibson: The Jews are responsible for all the awards shows in the world. Which is probably why I didn’t get nominated. Oh hey Salma! Say, your sugartits are looking real nice tonight!

Salma Hayek: If you like my Sugar Tits, you should see my Ugly Betty.

Ben Affleck: The name’s Affleck. A-F-F-L-E-C-K. I believe you’ll find I’m on the list. (grins stupidly)

Masi Oka: Golden Globes! Yatta!

The Jay: Stereotypes! Yatta!

Reese Witherspoon: I hope Ryan’s watching. I didn’t work out eight times a week, cut sugar, salt, bread and water from my diet and spray on my human face just to get hit on by Warren Beatty when Annette’s in the bathroom.

Sienna Miller: I am such a train wreck.

Ali Larter: Don’t look at me. My shit’s bangin’ and my show rules! Love and kisses to Jude. Oh wait, forget that…

Patrick Dempsey: Seriously, the hair? Looks good?

Tom Hanks: It looks great. Trust me, I would know.

Patrick Dempsey: I need a mirror! Stat!

Eddie Murphy: Finally, I’m more popular than Charlie. I’m Eddie Murphy, bitch. The Darkness has arrived!

Angelina Jolie: You get one hour Brad, then it’s back to Cambodia. I mean it. The orphaned babies need me.

Brad Pitt: Fine! Can I go play with George now? Pleeeeease?

Angelina Jolie: I miss Billy Bob.

Hugh Grant: I can’t believe I started my career nailing Julianne Moore and Julia Roberts and now I’m trying convincing the world I want to shag Drew Barrymore. Where did it all go wrong?

Drew Barrymore: I can’t believe I started my career nailing Chris O’Donnell and Adam Sandler and now I get to bone Hugh Grant! I must have don’t something right.

Jennifer Lopez: I am still relevant! I’m the face of Latin Entertainment.

America Ferrarra: Sure you are sweetie. Sure you are.

Meryl Streep: Put my Globe in the car, fetch me a martini and get Gyllenhaal boy’s phone number. That’s all.

Hillary Swank: Remember everybody, I’m still a girl. That fact has not changed. And I’m still single. Line it up, boys! Oh, hi Jack! Nice to see you, too…

Bangarang!

Oh yeah, and congratulations to the Mom and Dad, Mr. and Mrs. Batshit Crazy Tom Cruise. They must be so proud to have brought their hoax / beard / religious icon / robot / pod baby into this world. I’m sure they will make fine parents some day. Or at least hire a competent Scientologist nanny. Cigars for everyone! But don’t get addicted to nicotine. The Church doesn’t have a cure yet for the sweet, deathly weed.

It’s ironic (in that Alanis Morissette kinda way) that a devout Scientologist and a formerly devote Catholic would name their baby after a Hebrew word. I guess it’s anything you can do to get back in the good graces of Papa Spielberg, eh Cruise?

But don’t listen to me, I’m quite cynical (No, it’s true. But thanks for coming to my defense.). I have compiled a group of congratulations comments from friends and acquaintances of the Cruise family. Take a read on what some of Hollywood’s most famous people are saying about the baby of the year (At least until Brangelina pops out their Namibian freakshow golden baby, sometime in mid-June.).

John Travolta: Tommy, from one Level Three Thetan to another, congratulations. He will make a fine Xenuian descendant of L. Ron. Wanna make out?

Renee Zellweger: Whatever you do Katie, just make sure the lawyers put a Fraud clause in the pre-nup. Trust me on this one.

Brad Pitt: Seriously, Tom, how do you get Katie to stay so quiet? I can’t get Angie to shut her trap for five minutes; always going on and on about starving Africans and poor Cambodian mine fields. I don’t care. I’m from Missouri, Tom! The most I want to say to a girl is “Where’s my bud?” And now we’re having the kid, who to be honest may not even be mine, in some country called Namibia. I don’t even know where that is. Where am I? Can’t I just go home? Is this really my punishment for leaving Jennifer. She wasn’t even that great to begin with. Always had this slight stench of… Ross on her. Help me Tom, you’re my only hope.

Josh Hartnett: Katie, I’ll admit, when you left me for Tom without so much as a Blackberry text, I was pretty bummed. But now, the way I see it, you have at best traded sideways. Where as I, most definitely traded, UP. So, you know, no hard feelings.

Nicole Kidman: I guess my lawyer is just better than yours, Katie. We adopted. Best of luck with your new, small baby. And I do mean small. Troll spawn don’t often reach the heights of giants. Or even of normal people.

Chris Klein: Yeah, I know, I’m a jerk and a world-class, world-renowned sleazeball. But at least when I was dating Katie I let her say more than two words at a time AND let her get naked on-screen. So the way I see it, I’m probably square with the big guy up stairs. And with most of the fifteen year-olds who saw The Gift not knowing Katie was gonna unleash the wonder twins. Booyah, I tapped that hard, good and great. I rule.

Steven Spielberg: Congratulations, Tom. A baby is a wonderful thing to bring into the world. I would know, Kate and I have adopted seventeen of them. You know, I also like to consider my films to be my babies. Which I think makes it so hard to deal with the fact that you gave our War of the Worlds the equivalent of the black death. It may not last a decade in the minds of the audiences. So thanks Tom, for killing our baby. Hopefully you won’t do the same to yours. Now if you’ll excuse me, the Master must tend to his new reality show. Coming this fall on FOX!

Scarlet Johansson: Poor Katie. I am so glad that isn’t me.

Jessica Alba: You’re telling me!

Cuba Gooding Jr.: SHOW ME THE BABY! Sorry Tom, thought it might convince you to do Jerry Maguire 2. I really need the work. Nobody’s returning my calls. And they gave my Snow Dogs sequel to that cracker from the car-racing movie. Maybe I can pawn my Oscar. Nah, it hasn’t been worth anything since I made Chill Factor.

Michelle Williams: I wish I had done more on the Creek, Katie. I know we had our differences, what with you being more famous than me at the time, but if I had known what you would be going though now, I would have done things differently. We’re mothers now. Well, I mean, I’m a mother. You’re more of a surrogate to a Miracle Baby, but the point remains the same. Girls who used to work together, who also gave birth to the babies of pampered, slightly loopy actors must stick together. It’s all we have. Me, you and that little Asian girl Nicolas Cage bought in The Valley.

Britney Spears: Wow, ya’ll! Suri, that’s a cute name. I didn’t know you had an Indian baby. That’s so cool, Tom. If I could have chosen, I would have had a black baby, but Kevin and I don’t know how to do that. Kids are hard, ya’ll. There always falling off things when you’re not looking, and trying to drive your car without a car seat or seat belt. Kids are out of control. The real problem is the parents. So you be good to your little Indian girl. Ya hear?

Jack Nicholson: You want well wishes? You want well wishes? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE WELL WISHES! Son, we live in a world that has real religions. And those religions need to be guarded. Guarded against scientologists. Whose gonna do it? You Tom? You, zombie girl with the rack? I didn’t think so. I’d rather you just said I’m sorry, and went on your way. Best to Paula Wagner and the kids. Love Jack.

Val Kilmer: You can be my son’s play date anytime.

Jamie Foxx: HEEEEY!! HOOOO!!! You made it do what it do. HEEEYYY!! HOOOO!!! Here’s a gift for little baby. My CD, Unpredictable, in stores now. Love you, Big Cruisey. Holla atcha boy!

Brooke Shields: Born on the same day, huh? Man Tom, you are just so good at publicity. Stealing the spotlight of the birth of MY baby by having your own? What did you do? When you heard I was giving birth did you start stepping on Katie’s stomach? Did you inject her with some mutant Scientology not-drug that pushes the kid out faster, cures her of heroine and depression and cleanses her of dyslexia? Because I know you can do that.

Sean Penn: IS THAT YOUR BABY IN THERE? IS THAT YOUR BABY IN THERE? No seriously, in the crib, is that your baby in there? She’s cute. Good job, Tom.

Penelope Cruz: Garble, garble. Unintelligible accent, garble, Matthew’s abs are better, garble, Spanish curse word, control freak, deadly Spanish curse word, garble, garble. Como se dice? Congratulations Tommy. I’m glad it wasn’t me.

Stanley Kubrick: Don’t look at me, I’m dead. I make fifteen classic movies, and our goddamn sex movie gave me a heart attack. It took two years and a real live, honest-to-god sex doctor to make you believable having sex with your OWN wife, who I might add, was Nicole freakin Kidman. So, pardon me if I roll around in my grave a bit at the thought you knocked up that poor little girl within days of meeting her.

Sean Preston Spears: Stick with me, Suri. I know a great therapist. Been seeing him since I was born. We’ll keep it a secret from your pops.

Julia Roberts: Congratulations, Tom. You know it’s funny. I distinctly remember doing this movie where a rich guy paid my character a large sum of money to pretend I was his girlfriend, and to disguise who I really was. But we never had a baby together. I guess this is the sequel, huh? Hope she settled for more than I did. Inflation’s gone up since 1991.

L.Ron Hubbard: Tom, Katherine, Little Baby Zort, I mean Suri, warmest wishes from your beyond the grave Thetan leader. Now I have a bedtime story for little Suri. Many, many years ago there was a writer named Herman Melville, who wrote a book called Moby Dick. When the book was released it was a huge success, a bestseller for its age. Some time after the release of the book Oxford University invited Melville to speak at a roundtable discussion of the themes and elements of his book. The discussion was led by a slew of the finest minds in all of England. They instantly began peppering the writer with in-depth questions about the philosophical and metaphysical elements of Moby Dick. They wanted to know if the journey of Ahab was a meta-reference to the downward spiral of western intelligence. They asked if the color of the whale was a sub-textual representation of the ills of Mother England. And so on. The questions kept coming, and kept getting more deep and complex. After a time Melville raised his hand and silenced the panel. He gave a little smile, looked up and told the geniuses of the world: “Guys, it’s just a book about a guy chasing a whale.”

Congratulations on the newest addition to your family. And remember Tom, sometimes it really is just a book.

Bangarang!