There are times in life when you can see the train coming, know you should jump out of the way, but find you can do nothing to avoid the gruesome inevitability.

Last fall I documented Evan Almighty’s fishy $100 million box office gross; using box office statistics and a fair amount of common sense, I proved that the grosses for the film were artificially inflated to ensure the film reaching the industry standard century mark. This incident was not the first time, and I can assure you, is far from the last time, this kind of financial tampering will occur.

I can provide that assurance because I’m about to prove it happened again last weekend.

(I already went into the reasoning behind box office tampering in my Evan Almighty post, so we’re going to jump (heh) straight to the delicious dubiousness this time.)

On Valentine’s Day 2008, Jumper, the poorly received, poorly acted, poorly marketed sci-fi action craptacular was foisted on the general public. Starring a chunk of oak that has come to be called “Hayden Christensen”, uber-hottie Rachel Bilson, the Billy Elliot guy and the re-animated corpse of Samuel L. Jackson’s talent, the film was expected to launch a potential franchise. A cool concept, a well-regarded director, a (somewhat) hip cast and flashy special effects usually portend such an event (worked for The Matrix).

(By the by, the movie was good for exactly three things: 1. Continuing Hayden’s legendary streak of banging onscreen the hottest actresses in the world, 2. Paying off Sam Jackson’s 2008 Pebble Beach Country Club dues, and 3. the shameless plug on American Idol where Hayden and Ryan Seacrest attempted to outact each other, a cinematic moment unmatched in its brilliance by anything ever committed to celluloid. The Hayden/Seacrest tete-a-tete wipes its ass with Citizen Kane. On the real.)

Initially, all signs pointed to this studio wish coming true. Against all logic, the film grossed $27 million in its opening weekend. That, despite whore-rific critical reviews so bad I’m surprised the Razzie people haven’t ALREADY given them the 2008 Worst Picture Award (The film has a 16% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. To put that number into perspective, Hayden’s previous movie, Awake, the stupid beyond all measure “guy stays awake through surgery, but hey, in one scene you get to see Jessica Alba’s bare back, so you know you’re at least gonna YouTube that shit” thriller, received 24%.). Inexplicably surviving the thunder storm of “DON”T GO SEE JUMPER”, the film had a relatively solid ten-day gross of $56 million.

After one month in release, Jumper had grossed $75 million. But the legs were dying. Week-to-week grosses were dropping 50%; the chance the film would end its run north of $80 million were lowers than Hayden’s chances of ever becoming a “real live boy”! Unfortunately, 20th Century Fox had dumped too much money into the film, so no matter what, Jumper was reaching $80 million. You can’t justify a franchise launch at $79 million, but 80, you can make a brand with 80.

And that’s the moment I started paying attention.

Let’s take a look at the timeline for Jumper’s trainwreck run to 80 (all this info can be found: HERE):

Feb. 14 – Jumper opens. On 3,402 screens, the film grosses $6.6 million.

Mar. 15 – After 31 days in release, Jumper has grossed $75 million.

Mar. 28 – Jumper crosses the $78 million mark. At this rate, the film should cross the $80 mil mark in just under 35 days.

May 3 – 35 days later, the film is stalled at $79.43 million. This is the film’s 80th day of release. It is only on 141 screens and it’s gross for the day was $38,313.

May 13 – After 90 days in release, Jumper has grossed a modest $79.62 million.

Flash forward to…

June 13 – One month later, Jumper has grossed only $267 thousand in 30 days (this day’s gross – because it will be important later - $6,389 on 27 screens). At this rate, the film should theoretically break eighty million in about three more weeks. But here’s the problem: on June 10th, Jumper was released on DVD.

Now, usually a film is LONG GONE from cinemas by the time it is released on home video. So why is Jumper still in theaters? The film has been out for four full months. Its grosses have obviously stalled. Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk and Indiana Jones 4 are all in the marketplace. And the movie sucks. So who is going to see this movie? Especially when they can save the crazy expensive gas, not to mention an extra five bucks, by renting the damn thing!

At this point, is there ANY doubt a dubious weekend box office jump is on the horizon?

So here’s where the fun starts…

June 19 – Jumper grosses $1,446 on 27 screens. This number is in line with every Thursday number during the course of the film’s second leg.

June 20 – On Jumper’s 128 day in theaters, having been available on DVD for 10 FULL DAYS, the film boosts its theater count to 105 screens and grosses… wait for it… wait for it… $50,715!!!!!!!!! Let’s put that INSANE number into perspective, shall we?

• $50,715 is Jumper’s highest one-day gross since April 19th, the film’s 66th day of release! On that day, the film was in 200 screens. So how did the film gross 80% of that number in half the screens, a full TWO MONTHS LATER?

• The last day Jumper was in 100 plus screens on a Friday was May 9th, when the film grossed $42,165 on 124 screens. So how did the film gross $8k more in 22 less screens FORTY-TWO DAYS LATER???

• One week before, the film grossed $6,389 on 27 screens. By doing simple math, one week later, the film should have grossed around $24k. So how does one account for the film DOUBLING that number?? How does the entire industry not question the film showing a 3,407% increase in day-to-day box office?

And it gets better!

June 21 – Jumper grosses $65,520 on its 29th day of release, to FINALLY cross the all-important $80 million box office plateau.

• That number is a 30% increase from the ludicrous gross of the day before.

• The film has grossed more than $100k in just two days, when it needed TWENTY-FIVE days to hit the last $100k.

• For the weekend, Jumper grosses $141,164, good enough for 22nd place in its 19th weekend. It beats the Harold & Kumar sequel, even though that film had been in theatres ten weeks less, and was showing on HALF the number of screens.

• It grosses only $6k less than Horton Hears A Who, even though that film had been in theatres three weeks less, was showing on 150 more screens, and had grossed nearly DOUBLE more than Jumper!

HELLO? Anybody? Bueller?

What is going on? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!

One last bit of perspective…

• Star Wars: Episode 2 - Attack of the Clones, on its 129th day of release grossed $92,364 on 236 screens. By this token, had Jumper been in 236 screens it would have OUT-GROSSED STAR WARS!

It is not fathomable the whole of America suddenly became enamored with Hayden Christensen, so what gives? Where did this new money come from? Who is still seeing this movie? Did $141k worth of people start seeing ads for the DVD and decide that even though they hadn’t bothered to see the movie in theatres anytime in the last four months, NOW was the time to capitalize? Somebody please tell me, cause I went to college, majored in Film Studies and have spent untold hours on Box Office Mojo and I can’t explain it.

And what’s more, Jumper has grossed an average of $24k every day this week! The last Wednesday Jumper grossed $24k before yesterday was April 2nd, TWO AND A HALF MONTHS AGO!!! It’s now on pace to top $81 million, a figure that was the climax of director Doug Liman’s frenetically placed, but awesome to watch, wet dreams only seven days ago.

But hey… maybe audiences are just catching up on Spring movies. Maybe these numbers can be explained by a lack of action movies in theaters. Maybe people just really want to see Rachel Bilson’s crazy adorable squirrel face on a 30-foot screen (and who would blame them?). Or maybe the film is just better than I remember. Well… maybe not that last one.

Whatever the reason, SOMEthing is suspicious about these numbers. SOMEthing was fudged. SOMEone did something to make it happen. If Fox really needed the extra $141k in order to justify greenlighting a sequel that probably won’t gross $70 million anyway, I guess this was the right move. But i don’t know… the film did well internationally. Worldwide, Jumper has grossed a robust $221 million against an $85 million budget. With home video and ancillary money, that spells profit in any language. So why go to such dubious lengths to ensure an $80 million domestic box office gross?

And the best part about all of this? Jumper hit its dubious box office achievement the same weekend that Steve Carrell, he of the last dubious box office achievement, opened his new Summer movie! You have to love that kind of serendipity.

Sometimes you can see the train coming, because its already come before. And hey, the conductor looks awfully familiar.

Bangarang!

In honor of The Office airing it’s last pre-strike episode last Thursday, I’m gonna drop some Michael Scott-style humor on the poster for Steve Carell’s latest attempt to apologize for Evan Almighty’s existence and fraudulence. But before I get started, let me just say that I like the poster a lot, the teaser trailer cracked me up and any chance to see Steve Carell be awkward and Anne Hathaway be hot at the same time, is one I’m always gonna take. That combination is like Sex Panther to me, sixty percent of the time, it works every time.

So using ones of the highest levels of comedy are invented, here are ten “That’s what she said!” jokes about the new Get Smart Poster.

1 - In that position he’s got her all over his face.

That’s what she said!

2 - When the time for posing arises, he prefers to be behind her.

That’s what she said!

3 - But if there’s crime afoot, they’ll get to the bottom of it.

That’s what she said!

4 - Wow, that pistol looks pretty small in her hands.

That’s what she said!

5 - But she looks really determined to hold onto that thing.

That’s what she said!

6 - Remeber though, it’s not the size of the weapon, it’s how you use it.

That’s what she said!

7 - That coat looks really tight on her. I don’t know how she’s gonna get it off.

That’s what she said!

8 - Speaking of, he should put his arms down, he looks stiff.

That’s what she said!

9 - It really is a nice poster. I can’t wait to nail it against the wall.

That’s what she said!

And of course:

10 - I hope the opening weekend is big.

That’s what she said!

Bangarang!

Sometimes you can see something coming from a mile away and still be surprised when it hits you in the face.

A few weeks ago I noticed that Evan Almighty, Universal’s sequel-in-name-and-Morgan-Freeman-only to 2003’s mega hit Bruce Almighty, was inching towards the vaunted $100 million dollar mark at the domestic box office. The movie had flopped upon its initial release, causing enormous embarassment for Universal and sending the studio into another poor fiscal performance for the quarter. Despite the widespread denouncement of the film, crossing the century line at the box office would be a sign of moderate success for what is known as the most expensive live-action comedy ever made.

The number was too important for Universal (as well as all members of the production with performance bonuses in their contracts) not to hit it, so the achievement seemed a pretty foregone conclusion. The only problem was that the movie wasn’t making enough end of the run money to hit the number. And that’s when I knew that something fishy was about to happen.

Three days ago Evan Almighty crossed the $100 million dollar mark by grossing a dubiously high one day gross on its 13th weekend. Nobody in the press or online world picked up on it, but I did. And I’m gonna tell you all about it.

But first, a quick discourse on star contracts: built in to all contracts for above the line players and below the line decision makers (that being the director, exec and regular producers, and sometimes the writer) are performance escalators that pay out when the movie they’re making hits certain financial goals. Twenty million dollar opening weekend, hundred million dollars domestic, hundred million dollars international, one million DVD units sold, and so on. These bonuses are independent of the actual salary, so an actor or director or producer doesn’t need to do ANYTHING to get the money, so long as the movie does well. You make the movie, promote it like hell, hope people like it and wait for the easy money to roll in. Therefore it is of great interest for all creative players involved that a movie score at the box office and trigger the bonuses.

To give you an example of the money we are talking about, I once got to see the Van Helsing contract for character actor Kevin J. O’Conner. He was the sixth billed lead and barely recognizable to anyone that isn’t a die hard fan of Deep Rising and yet his bonus for Van Helsing hitting $100 million was something north of $150,000. That doubled if the film hit $150 million, and so on in increments of $50 million. Seeing as how Van Helsing opened to $50 million, grossed $120 domestic and $180 internationally, and moved more than six million units on home video, I’m guessing O’Conner’s escalators paid him out to the tune of $500k. Not too shabby for sitting on your ass and not answering to how exorable the movie turned out. So keep these relatively low numbers in mind as we start talking about the bigger names involved in Evan Almighty.

On the studio side, a film grossing $100 million is important for a variety of reasons. It’s a clearly-defined financial marker than can be conveyed as a success to financiers and stockholders. As well, and more importantly, the box office of a film directly affects the home video sales. Grossing certain box office numbers dictates the number of copies vendors will put in stores for retail and purchase. A movie that tanks cannot be expected to do big home video business because the retailers won’t support their volume needs, but a hugely successful movie is virtually guaranteed to succeed in home video because of the perceived customer demand gleamed from the box office take. Kevin Smith has talked at length in commentaries and interviews about how important it was for Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back to do at least $30 million because it meant he’d sell an extra $300k DVD’s. The math only goes north from there.

I’m gonna take you through a calendar of events surrounding Evan Almighty’s road to $100 million and let you decide for yourself if I’m just seeing things (all information can be found HERE):

6.22.07 – Evan Almighty opens to extremely high expectations. High production costs, reshoots and big salaries for stars Steve Carrell, Morgan Freeman, writer Steve Oedekerk and director Tom Shadyac drove the budget of the film to a reported $175 million, making it the most costly comedy in the history of cinema, even accounting for inflation. Universal, banking on the strength of the franchise’s original film and the audience goodwill of Steve Carell generated by the previous summer’s sleeper hit The 40 Year-Old Virgin, pushed the film hard, hoping the film would match Bruce Almighty’s $240 million box office gross, or at the very least, the industry accepted 30% sequel dip. So the realistic box office goal of the film was about $175 million, or roughly the exact amount of the production budget. International box office would recoup the marketing and distribution fees and with a hearty home video take the film would prove to be quite profitable. But that’s not what happened.

6.24.07 – Evan Almighty takes in $31 million in its opening frame, less than half of what Bruce Almighty took in its first weekend, and a good $15 million below industry expectation. The film is quickly labeled as a flop, and rightly so.

7.1.07 – By its tenth day in theaters, Evan Almighty has only grossed $60 million. By this point in its run, Bruce Almighty had taken in $137 million.

8.1.07 – The film has showed moderate legs, grossing $36 million for the month of July, to bring it’s total to $96 million. This is where I started to take notice.

8.28.07 – Evan Almighty crosses $99 million. At the rate it’s going it should theoretically cross $100 million dollars in about 17 days, or on September 13th.

9.13.07 – On the film’s 84th day of release, Evan is still languishing in sub-$100 million hell. It has only grossed $745,000 in the last 17 days. By this revised estimate, $100 million is still one week away. This is when I made the most prescient statement since I predicted that Heroes would be the breakout hit of last season, six months before it premiered. I remember looking at Evan’s numbers and thinking “I bet it crosses $100 million this weekend with a crazy, unexplainable bump in the numbers”. I will leave it to you to decide if I was right.

Friday 9.14.07 – Evan grosses $40,425 in 385 screens, a standard decline of 20% from the previous Friday, though notable in that the previous Friday’s numbers came from 120 fewer screens. Based on this formula, Evan could look to gross about $75,000 on Saturday, a 20% decrease from the previous weekend’s $94k.

Saturday 9.15.07 – Evan Almighty, in its 86th day of release, grosses $209,825 dollars! Does that number seem odd to you? Let me put that number into perspective.

• That total is 419% increase from the day before.

• It’s a 55% INCREASE from the previous Saturday, where as the Friday to Friday numbers DECREASED 20%.

• The last time Evan Almighty grossed more $200k in a single day was July 29th, 48 days before, when the film was playing on 700 MORE screens!

• The last Saturday Evan was in an equal number of screens was August 25th, the film’s 65th day of release, when the film took in $138k. That’s a 50% bump three weeks later. Um, hello?

Sunday 9.16.07 – Evan Almighty grosses $44,275 to cross the $100 million mark. It is a 79% drop from the ginormous day before, but only a 35% drop from the previous Sunday, holding to traditional box office patterns. There is no evidence to explain the boost in ticket sales for Saturday, and Sunday’s grosses do little to support the theory that the day was nothing more than an aberration. Or was it?

I hold that that number was inflated on purpose. I can’t say which side was responsible for the boost, the creative team wanting their escalators or Universal wanting to say the film grossed $100 million and save some face, but I can firmly state that box office grosses for Evan Almighty were artificially inflated on Saturday, September 15th in a last ditch attempt to hit the century mark.

I’m not deploring the tactic, box office tampering has been going on for decades, and in the long run who really cares anyway; I take pause with the egregiously conspicuous way in which it went down. Slowly pump up the numbers for a couple days during the week so you can prove the film was tracking higher, and then evenly distribute the money across the entire weekend. Don’t let the film do the exact amount of business expected for a full week and then dump $130k on a single day!!! That’s how you get caught. It’s just a terrible way to perpetuate a harmless fraud. And a rather expensive way to meet your goals. Mathematically speaking, if you assume that the combined performance bonuses for the big four involved in Evan Almighty hitting the century mark (Carell, Freeman, Oedekerk, Shadyac) was $3.5 million, then someone spent $130,000 dollars to cost the production 37 times that amount! It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that some phone calls were made last week and a proverbial hat was passed around town, collection donations for the Evan Almighty emergency funds.

This piece of information might not be of interest to anyone, but I thought it was pretty fascinating to see the machinery of big business studio economics at work. And I thought it was apropos that a movie made only on the pretense of making money and not artistic achievement, solved their flagging box office problem by doing the exact opposite action of the intent of the film, yet repeating its pointless origin: they spent money to make money (which made them spend MORE money).

Congratulations to Evan Almighty for crossing the century mark at the box office; I hope all involved are having a good time opening their mail this week.

Bangarang!