Alright, so here’s the deal… a day after the Oscars I got bad dash of stomach flu. Up until this afternoon, I hadn’t been out of bed since Monday night. And it sucked. If you think for a second it may be fun to hang out in bed for two days, I welcome you to try it, but you’re gonna hate it, because it sucks. First off, there’s absolutely nothing on TV during the days. Aside from the always reliable PTI on ESPN there might be an above average SNL on E!, but mostly there’s a big ball of nothing (Man, there were a lot of abbreviations in that sentence. LOL!).

Also, lying down for an extended period of time is not fun; your legs lock up and get sore, you get nasty full body cramps and you get a raging cotton sheets-induced headache. So now I’m a couple pounds lighter, a couple Netflix mailed back and two days behind on my final Oscar recap. Unfortunately, I’m apparently the only one on the net that hasn’t done one yet. Seriously, who knew that Oscar coverage would be so widespread on the net? Since when was it about anything else but porn?

So you’re not getting a big slam bang Oscar recap filled with best and worst lists and cheap shots at the expense of Reese Witherspoon (well maybe you’ll still get one or two). I’m done with the Oscars, done with my mammothly over thought-out Oscar coverage and done with my blinding anger over the Crash win. And I would bet most of you would like to see me writing about something else. But before I do, I will give you one last Oscar treat.

Every year I like to write what I think some celebrities were thinking as they walked down the Oscar red carpet. A-Train personally requested I do this, and since he’s throwing what will be an awesome St. Patrick’s Day party down at his Manhattan Beach pad next week (Irish Car Bombs here I come…), I am inclined to acquiesce to his request… means “yes”.

So…

Things Overheard… On The Oscar Red Carpet

Paul Giamatti – I would have shaved for this thing, but I know they’re giving it to Clooney. Why even make me come down? You screwed me last year and now you’re giving me a pity nod? Screw it, I’m gonna go find Russell Crowe, get drunk and throw stuff.

George Clooney – I wonder… if I win, could I get as many chicks as Jack? Probably not, but damn if I’m not gonna give it my best shot.

Keira Knightley – I left Johnny Depp and Orlando Bloom on a beautiful Caribbean island to fly halfway around the world, and get all crazy hotted up just so I can lose graciously to that squirrel chin, Reese Witherspoon? The things I gotta do to make up for Domino!

Heath Ledger – And to think, I was this close to signing up for A Knight’s Tale 2: Revenge of the Joust.

Scarlet Johansson – You mean I suffered through three months of Woody Allen ogling my ass and Isaac Mizrahi grabbing my tits and I didn’t even get nominated? Damn! Well, at least I look like a pornstar. That should get me some respect.

Hillary Swank – Remember everybody, I’m still a girl. That fact has not changed. And now I’m single. Line it up, boys!

Charlize Theron – Man, what is that thing on my shoulder? Was I high when I picked this dress, or am I just high now? Eh, probably both.

Martin Scorsese – Hey, what do you guys have going on here? Oh, the Oscars? That’s cool. Yeah, I stopped going ten years ago when I realized I’d never win. You reap what you sow. I probably should never of whacked Gil Cates’s wife after I lost out on Goodfellas to Kevin freakin’ Costner! Eh, what can you do?

Lindsay Lohan – It’s five o’clock, did I miss the free coke giveaway?

Harrison Ford – What? They don’t serve alcohol at this thing? Fuck it, I’m going back to my ranch.

Tom Hanks – My hair looks fantastic. So much good product in it. Look at that wave. Two-time Oscar winner, box office champion, and now, hair model. And I don’t at all look like an idiot.

Jake Gyllenhaal – I gotta go kiss some more girls to prove I’m not gay. Where did Hilary Swank go?

Reese Witherspoon – It’s too bad that famous online humorist The Jay doesn’t like me. Maybe If I win the Oscar he’ll finally forgive me for that face I made in Cruel Intentions, and for generally acting snotty and above it all.

Renee Zellweger – I wouldn’t count on it. Trust me, I know.

The Jay – Bitchface is right, sorry. The hate-on continues!

Nicole Kidman – Can someone blink my eyeballs for me? Seriously, I can’t move them. It’s possible I may have botoxed my eyes permanently open. This can’t be good. Well, on the bright side, at least I’m not still married to Tom.

Steven Spielberg – Stop asking me about Indy 4. We’ll make it as soon as Harrison dries out.

Samuel L. Jackson – Next year it’s all me. Best Actor for Snakes on a Muthafuckin’ Plane! Yes I deserve the Oscar and I hope they burn in hell!

Jennifer Garner – That’s Mrs. Affleck if you’re nasty!

Jack Nicholson – You know what? Whatever it says on that envelope, I’m saying something else. Just for funsies. I mean, what are they gonna do? I’m Jack.

Michelle Williams – Let’s see, Pacey fell off the face of the earth, Dawson is stuck doing failed sitcom pilots, Katie got sold into slavery, and I’m here, nominated for an Oscar and married to Heath Ledger. Yeah, we’re gonna call that a win for me. Michelle’s Creek in the house!

Peter Jackson – Walloping wallabies and crickey, you mean you buggers didn’t love me Kong movie? I don’t blimey get it. Should I not have made it three hours? Was that dreadful first hour where you don’t even see Kong too much? Should I have put in some gay hobbit sex just to make it topical? Cause I have me some of that. I got Elijah drunk one night on the set of The Two Towers.

Jennifer Aniston – What? Did you say Brad’s here? Cause I coulda sworn you said Brad’s here. No? Oh, ok. Breath, Jen, just breathe. It’s gonna be ok. He’ll come back. He’ll forget all about that skank Angelina and come back to me, Leathersk-er, I mean, Jennifer.

William H. Macy – Did you see the dick on my wife in her movie? Yeah, that’s right people! I take her home EVERY NIGHT.

Matthew McConaughey – You what I say about the Oscars? I keep getting older, they never nominate me.

Katie Holmes – Please god, somebody just kill him. I had no idea it would be like this. He’s so creepy. If I don’t smile and call him amazing every five minutes he’ll force me spend the night in the Scientology Center. I’m so scared.

Tom Cruise – Woo hoo! Yeah! I’m so in love. She is not at all a beard! Did you see how pregnant I have made her! Woo! Katie, it’s been five minutes. Smile and call me amazing, it’s time for a sound bite and a way heterosexual photo-op kiss. Bend down. Lower…. lower… c’mon, you afraid to ruin your dress? I’m like, 3’4, get on your knees and open wide. I am so not nuts!

Mel Gibson – That ok, cause I am! Go see my psychotic new Mayan adventure movie“Apocalypto”, coming this summer to a theatre near you. Best Picture 2006, here I come! Praise Jesus!

Bangarang!

As my impeachable moral code dictates, I am the first to admit when I’m wrong. So… I was wrong. Despite overwhelming evidence that Brokeback Mountain was the best picture of the year (Golden Globe, DGA, PGA, WGA, dozens of critics prizes, plus, you know, popular freakin’ opinion!), the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences, in their infinite wisdom, decided to forgo this groundbreaking, progressive and socially relevant film in order to bestow the highest prize in all of cinema to a hackneyed, cluttered ensemble piece whose central message was that, surprise, people still don’t like other people. Like, whoa, you’re telling me there are still bigots, racists, narrow-minded fools and rampant global-ignorance? I am stunned that it took Matt Dillon to teach me about the evils of isolationism.

Wow…

The biggest upset in Oscar history. Bigger than John Wayne robbing Dustin Hoffman back in 1968. Bigger that Shakespeare in Love buying a Best Picture win over Saving Private Ryan. Bigger than Marisa Tomei and all the conspiracy theories surrounding the way she won. It’s not often you get to watch history literally unfold, but boy, we got that chance last night. What was up until that point a relatively predictable Oscar telecast (I was right about the Clooney win), became the most exciting Oscar ceremony in nearly a decade. It reminded me of the Rams/Titans Super Bowl back in 2000. That last play was so amazing that the entire attitude toward that game was changed. I remember a boring Super Bowl with an exciting final few minutes, everyone else remembers the greatest Super Bowl in the history of the NFL. In ten years people will remember this Oscar show as tense, surprising and exciting. They will say it was the funniest Oscar show they have ever seen. I’m telling you, don’t believe them. This was a boring, tepid Oscars, overrun with silly clip montages, poorly choreographed Best Song numbers and unfunny, dull acceptance speeches. This was a mild show with an unbelievable climax. Memorable television, that does not make.

So here I am, recapping the second Oscars in a row where Paul Haggis fooled us all. I hated his Million Dollar Baby, calling it unsubtle, manipulative and pretentious. I couldn’t have dreamed that he could write a more on the nose film. Again, I was wrong.

You know, it’s not so much that I was so in love with Brokeback Mountain and desperately wanted it to win, as it is that I so vehemently disliked Crash. I am befuddled by the critics that lavished praise on Crash, calling in a searing examination of modern day racism. I don’t understand the people who were touched by the “redemption” of the Matt Dillon character, and who were moved by the scene where the little girl is “shot”. What I saw was a bunch of well-known actors saying words that were designed to manipulate and provoke preset emotions and not intended to decipher the problem and attempt a resolution. Where some saw subtlety, I saw a weak, unconfident narrative. You know what you do when you want to write about racism but don’t have any answers to the problem? You have people talk openly about racism, then show them being racist, albeit with moral consequences.

I don’t need to be told there are racists still alive today. I don’t need to see obvious racism in action. And I especially don’t need to be told that I should feel bad that there is racism. Of course I feel bad. It’s but one of many things about life that I feel bad about. Racism, poverty, anti-Semitism, homophobia, genocide, ignorance, bad education, drugs, sexual and physical assault, abuse in any form, child molestation, violence in schools, gangs… and so on; there are bad things happening in this world, and having Thandie Newton and Terrence Howard complain about it is not the way to make me reach into my heart and open the floodgates.

And furthermore, what side was that movie on, anyway? Did it even take a side? Sure, they fell on the “racism is bad” side, but you know, of course they did. What I’m saying is, I know everything they showed me, and I wanted to see something more. I wanted to walk out of that movie thinking that the film tried to do something about the effects of racism, that the filmmakers took some time to examine the problem and attempt to visualize a solution. I wanted to see that they had more on their mind than giving Sandra Bullock a chance to gain some indie cred.

Crash was a bad social studies lesson with no central plot. What was the movie about? Don’t tell me that all there was was a group of characters that coincidentally crossed each other’s paths. Don’t tell me that the writers of the movie had no roadmap to the end credits, that they didn’t create a traditional (and necessary) three-act story structure, or that I am expected to marvel at a screenplay about ten little stories woven together with character bumpers. Because if I’m being told these things it is because Crash was weak, that it had no spine. You know what you do when you don’t have the talent to write a single story so powerful that it deserves its two-hour length? You write several moderately powerful stories and modulate the major emotional scenes so that you have one slam dunk after another. Sure, it’s seems powerful and heart-rending, but in reality it’s just manipulative, small filmmaking. I didn’t need to see ten different B-plots about gay men in society because Brokeback Mountain had a central story strong enough to propel in an entire film.

And let me change gears a bit and talk about the Academy, a group of people so blind to the world that they couldn’t recognize social change if Paul Haggis wrote a three-part epic about it. I think they were afraid of the mid-west. I think they were afraid of what it may look like to conservative Americans if they gave their highest honor to a “gay cowboy” movie. That if someone in the Heartland was watching the Oscars and complaining about how “nebbishy” Jon Stewart is (Like, way to bring the Yiddish, Heartland), and when Jack opened the envelope and said Brokeback Mountain they would have swelled with homophobia and at that moment absolutely refuse ever to go to the movies again. How bad would it really have been to name Brokeback Mountain our Best Picture of the year? What was so wrong and scary about saying that the film that touched hearts, opened lines of dialogue and that informed people about a subject that had previously been ignored, that it is the best representation of what cinema offered in the year 2005?

The Academy has always like being a proponent of social change. They awarded Driving Miss Daisy, an intimate look on race relations in the south. They awarded Rain Man, a optimistic look about overcoming mental retardation. They awarded Kramer vs. Kramer when divorce was beginning to become a real problem in society. They awarded Gandhi, Schindler’s List, Midnight Cowboy and The Bridge Over the River Kwai. So am I to understand that the Academy is more than willing to award film that explore social change, as long as it isn’t homosexuality? In fifty years Brokeback Mountain will still be an important film. It will still be a glowing example of how film can change society’s way of thinking. Crash will just be another ensemble movie, a footnote in Oscar history. The way we will forget Chicago, Out of Africa and Around the World in 80 Days. I want my Academy to be a place where they value daring cinema, and who cares if certain people don’t like it.

Coke, GM and whoever else bought airtime would not have refused to sponsor the Oscars if Brokeback had won. It’s the Oscars; nothing will stop people from watching. They could have set a strong message. They could have set a daring precedent. They could have done some good. I need the Best Picture of the year to blow my socks off. I need to feel like when my son goes to film school that he’ll come home from class one day, call me up and go “Dad, they showed me Braveheart today. Man alive, that was a great film.‿ I want the Best Picture to inspire kids to want to be filmmakers. I don’t need the Best Picture to be a bargain-rate social studies class. That’s what we have high school for. The Oscars are supposed to be about something more. And last night they let me down.

In time I will get over this. I will grudgingly accept that the last two Best Pictures have been films that I loathed. I will hope against hope that I fall head over heels in love with the next five Best Pictures. That maybe the Academy will climb a ladder, get over their selves and give Martin Scorsese a freaking Oscar already. That maybe Paul Giamatti will eventually get this Oscar (As will Bruce Willis, Sylvester Stallone, Ed Norton and Tom Cruise). In time I hope that my Oscar parties only get better and better (Though last night was a ton of fun. Thank you to everyone that came.). I hope that they bring back Jon Stewart and let him grow into the national stage; he was not bad, but not great (Though I did love the Keira Knightley crazy-hotness commercial).

I hope… I hope that one day I will catch Crash on TNT and be surprised to find that I was wrong. That I just missed it the first time around. That I fall in love with the film and regret all the things I just wrote about the film. I hope all these things happen, but do I think they will? No… probably not.

Congratulations to all the winners; congratulations to Paul Haggis, may he strive to do better work so that I may start respecting him and respecting his films, his Best Pictures.

Bangarang!

Best Picture

• BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
• CRASH
• CAPOTE
• MUNICH

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - If my previous post about Brokeback Mountain winning the Best Picture Oscar wasn’t enough to convince you of my pick, then nothing will. The bottom line is that Crash is going through an ugly court battle between the producers, and a late critical backlash is spreading way too fast around town for the Academy to get behind the movie. Also, it sucked. No one saw Capote, Goodnight and Good Luck is a place holder nomination and Munich is too controversial a pick. This is Brokeback’s to lose, always has been.

Should Win: Brokeback Mountain – The Best Picture award has to go to the film that defines cinema in its year. It should be an ambassador of cinema, and it should be the most heralded film of the year. Brokeback is a strong film that brings all the right things to the table. It may not be the best movie of the year (Kiss Kiss Bang Bang got robbed!), but it definitely should be considered the Best Picture of the year.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Philip Seymour Hoffman, CAPOTE
• Heath Ledger, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• Terrence Howard, HUSTLE AND FLOW
• David Strathairn, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
• Joaquin Phoenix, WALK THE LINE

Will Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman – He satisfies the following criteria: Be Fat, Be Owed and Be Needed. He is arguably the best actor working today, and Hollywood isn’t stupid enough not to honor him for his work. Joaquin will get an award in time, but his performance was just a bit too much of a Jamie Foxx in Ray retread, and Jamie was better. The Strathairn nod is a “thank you for the years of good service” nod, so he has no chance. And the Terrence Howard nod is a “congratulations on becoming the next Denzel” nod. I would bet he’ll be back at the Oscars in the years to come. As for Heath, well, there ain’t no way we’re giving the Best Actor Oscar to the guy from A Knight’s Tale. It’s just not happening. His nod is much more like a Most Improved nomination, than anything else.

Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Though not so much because of Capote, than because of Happiness, Talented Mr. Ripley, 25th Hour, Flawless, Almost Famous and his watershed performance in Boogie Nights as the love struck Scottie J. It would be a crime if he never wins an Academy Award.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Felicity Huffman, TRANSAMERICA
• Charlize Theron, NORTH COUNTRY
• Reese Witherspoon, WALK THE LINE
• Keira Knightley, PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
• Judi Dench, MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon – She’s the next Julia Roberts, and the Oscars will be her official coronation (Even though she’s loathsome in almost every way). Charlize and Judi Dench were nominated because they are classy actresses that did well in Oscar Bait movies. Also, it was a really bad year for women in film. Felicity Huffman is a TV actress, so no matter how good she was in Transamerica, I’m not sure what she is doing here (Please leave Desperate Housewives and join the new Aaron Sorkin show. Please!). As for Keira Knightley, I loved her in Pride and Prejudice, but I bet this is a do good nomination, in that the Academy said to her “Well done, you finally began to tap the potential we all saw in you back in Bend it like Beckham, now go out, do good, and we’ll see you back here in a few years. And no more action movies, you’re too thin to be a bounty hunter. Eat a hamburger for god sakes. Can’t you be more like Scarlet?”

Should Win: Reese Witherspoon – As much as I hate to say it, Hollywood has spent too much time and money grooming Reese to be a star, so her not winning would basically be Hollywood admitting they had put their money on the wrong horse (And if you think I didn’t enjoy comparing Reese to a horse just then, well, you don’t know me very well.). I would love to see Felicity Huffman win, but only because she gives the best acceptance speeches this side of Jack Nicholson.

Best Director

• Steven Spielberg, MUNICH
• Ang Lee, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• George Clooney, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
• Paul Haggis, CRASH
• Bennet Miller, CAPOTE

Will Win: Ang Lee – He has the qualifications, the resume, and the respect. Any actor would kill their agent to work with him, and every studio in town wants his next movie. Plus, he made Brokeback a success when every director in town wanted to do it, and couldn’t get it made. He, more than anyone else nominated for Oscars this year, deserves to win. Spielberg has two wins already, and even though Munich was masterful in every way, too many Jews are angry about how he depicted Palestine. And not to make this a political piece, but yes, Jews do run Hollywood. If Steven wants to win making a film about history, he needs to stick with what he does best (and what Hollywood Jews prefer he does), World War II. Clooney did a great job, but he’s too much of a novice (not to mention a pretty boy) to climb over the acclaimed Ang Lee. Bennet Miller is a rookie, but has a bright future ahead of him. As for Paul Haggis, well… he’s a hack. Everyone knows it, probably even him. Yes, he makes movies that allow actors to shine, but he can’t put together a subtle story to save his life.

Should Win: Shane Black – When you can make a great movie out of an outdated genre using two leads who are widely considered to be the hardest two actors to work with in the world, launch the career of a great new female actress (Michelle Monaghan), AND keep the integrity of your movie when you have Corbin Bernson as your villain, well, that deserves an Oscar in my book. Ang can keep his gay cowboys, I’ll stick with Shane Black’s Gay Perry.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Paul Giamatti, CINDERELLA MAN
• George Clooney, SYRIANA
• Matt Dillon, CRASH
• William Hurt, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
• Jake Gyllenhaal, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Will Win: Paul Giamatti – He’s owed, he’s needed and he was snubbed too hard last year for the Academy to make the same mistake twice. Matt Dillon got a “thanks for the years of good service” nod, though I do admire the work he did in Crash. William Hurt was only on-screen for ten minutes, and you have to be Jack Nicholson or Judi Dench to win the award in that amount of screen time. I liked Jake Gyllenhaal more than Heath Ledger, but Jake is a bit to early in his career for a win. I expect to see him back in the years to come. Clooney was great, and stands as the main challenger to Giamatti. If there’s gonna be an upset on Oscar Night (and there usually is), than a Clooney win will be it.

Should Win: George Clooney – In Syrianna George Clooney did everything you are supposed to do to win an Oscar. He got fat, he got ugly, he took a pay cut, he played it subtle and he helped produce the movie. In my boat, he deserves the award just for having the stones to put his name on the line to make the movie. I thought he was fantastic in Syrianna; he was my favorite character in the movie, which says a lot considering the quality of the cast (Jeffrey Wright, Chris Cooper, Christopher Plummer, Tim Blake Nelson). Also, he’s been great in a slew of films, beginning with Out of Sight. I think he’s an underrated actor, and due a few accolades. Moreover, I don’t care that he was snubbed last year, Giamatti just wasn’t THAT great in Cinderella Man.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Rachel Weisz, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
• Frances McDormand, NORTH COUNTRY
• Michelle Williams, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• Amy Adams, JUNEBUG
• Catherine Keener, CAPOTE

Will Win: Rachel Weisz – She British, she’s well liked, and she was really good in a well-pedigreed movie. She’s the current front-runner and I don’t see anyone that can pass her. Frances McDormand got the nod because the Academy loves her. Catherine Keener is being honoured for her body of work, and not for Capote (because no one saw it). Amy Adams is just along for the ride. And Michelle Williams, though excellent in Brokeback, is riding the success of the film, and doesn’t have enough support to overtake Weisz. Also, she’s a TV actress, and hasn’t yet lived down Dawson’s Creek (It may take some time.).

Should Win: Amy Adams – Because if Oscar history teaches us anything, it’s that the Academy loves to go kooky in this category. She was apparently a revelation in her movie, Junebug, and critics have being leap-frogging each other to give her praise. The only thing holding her back is that the film has no buzz about it at all. As for Rachel Weisz, I like her, and liked her in The Constant Gardener, but the movie was SO boring. It took me three tries just to finish watching it. Would it kill them to have an action scene? Can we get Ralph Fiennes to shoot somebody? Please?

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen, MATCH POINT
• George Clooney & Grant Heslov, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
• Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, CRASH
• Stephen Gaghan, SYRIANA
• Noah Baumbach, THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

Will Win: Goodnight, and Good Luck – Because George got three nominations, and he has to win at least one. Also, did I mention that Crash sucked. Syrianna was muddled, too vague and insular, and way too left-leaning for the Academy to honor it. The Squid and the Whale is the token Indie movie here (And a film I will NEVER see. The Jay does not do angry divorce movies. I don’t care how good Jeff Daniels was.). As for Match Point, the script has no chance, because the movie itself didn’t get nominated. If it had, Match Point would be the dark horse favorite. It’s nice to see Woody Allen doing good work again, but like I’ve said in the past, he makes a movie every year, after a while he was bound to get one right.

Should Win: Goodnight, and Good Luck – A black and white movie about news anchors, and it didn’t star Will Ferrell? That’s daring! For George to spend so much time on a passion project such as this, and for it to turn out so well, is a marvel. Who knew he could write? Now I kinda have to hate him. He’s great-looking, a good actor, a good director AND he can write? That’s just not fair.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Dan Futterman, CAPOTE
• Josh Olson, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
• Jeffrey Caine, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
• Tony Kushner & Eric Roth, MUNICH
• Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain – This is a foregone conclusion. I don’t like that Dan Futterman has been telling people he had to learn what a narrative was before he wrote Capote, like dude, you just got nominated for a writing Oscar, at least fake like you know how to write. A History of Violence was unfairly snubbed by the Academy, so it has no chance to overtake the Brokeback juggernaut. See above for my comments on The Constant Gardener. Munich as unbelievable pedigree, but overcompensates with way too much territorial confusion. I think Roth and Kushner differed on how to represent Israel, and that may have been the downfall of the film. Had they both shared a cohesive emotional through line about the country I think Munich would have been a more fluid (and well-received) film.

Should Win: Shane Black – Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang – Can I get some love for Shane Black. This man is owed an Oscar, more than any other writer out there. He created the Lethal Weapon movies! He wrote A Long Kiss Goodnight! Damn it, he wrote The Last Boyscout! Who cares about gay cowboys, Shane Black is the best genre writer we have.

Host: John Stewart

He will tank. Whenever you have a comedian who’s material is edgy and independent, they always try to go mainstream for the Oscars, with predictably bad results (see: David Letterman or Chris Rock). Also, he’s a TV guy. What’s with the trend of mixing TV with film? I like the division, and besides, that’s why we have the Emmy’s (Which is probably a better place for Stewart to host). I think you can expect a tepid monologue with too many political jokes, and about nine George Clooney cut-aways. I think you’ll see a poorly-conceived movie parody ala Billy Crystal. And I think you’ll see him be nervous, stutter a lot, trip over his lisp, and ultimately bore us. I hope he does well because I think he’s extremely talented, but I worry he’s gonna unleash his version of ‘Uma, Oprah” and never get asked back to the big dance.

As for the other awards, here are my predictions:

Best Foreign Film: Tsotsi

Best Animated Feature – Wallace and Gromit

Best Cinematography – Brokeback Mountain

Best Score – Brokeback Mountain

Best Song – Dolly Parton, Transamerica

Best Documentary Feature – Enron: Smartest Guys in the Room

Best Visual Effects – Chronicles of Narnia

Best Costume Design – Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Makeup – Chronicles of Narnia

Best Film Editing – Munich

And those are my predictions for the 2006 Academy Awards. Hope you all have a great Oscar Night.

Bangarang!

Best Picture

• BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
• CRASH
• CAPOTE
• MUNICH

Overall Thoughts: This fell pretty much in line with most people’s predictions, a theme that spread throughout this year’s list of nominees. Of the five, Brokeback Mountain still has the edge, though a surprise win by Crash at this weekend’s SAG awards paints the ensemble drama as a late dark horse.

Biggest Surprise: Munich

Most critics and pundits left this film for dead after the film was crucified for the way it was alternately pro and anti Palestine. Dim audience reaction also did nothing to help the film’s cause, and the film was virtually shut out by the Golden Globes. Bravo to the Academy for recognizing the second bravest film of the year (after Brokeback), and Steven Spielberg’s strongest effort since Saving Private Ryan.

Biggest Snub: Walk the Line

This is only a snub because people were to afraid to support Munich. This is not a snub in my mind because the film is two great performances caught in a mediocre story. This is not Ray, don’t let anyone tell you different.

Biggest Snub, #2: King Kong

Universal banked on the past-Oscar success of director Peter Jackson and probably assumed they could rent their tuxes the day they green lit this picture. Too bad it was twenty minutes too long, poorly structured, thinly characterized and worst of all, kinda boring. The only thing that could have saved this film was a Titanic-like surge at the box office (and $200 million doesn’t cut it).

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Philip Seymour Hoffman, CAPOTE
• Heath Ledger, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• Terrence Howard, HUSTLE AND FLOW
• David Strathairn, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
• Joaquin Phoenix, WALK THE LINE

Overall Thoughts: Like the Best Picture race, this slot had four obvious choices and one surprise. It’s always been a three man race between Hoffman, Ledger and Phoenix, but the surplus of nominations for little indie Capote probably signals a larger support base for Hoffman, than for the other two. Look for him to steal the Brokeback limelight, if only for a few minutes.

Biggest Surprise: Terrence Howard

This feels like a thank you nomination, more than a specific deserved performance nomination. Howard was admittedly stellar in Hustle and Flow, but also gave great supporting performances in Crash and Four Brothers. I think this is the Academy’s was of thanking Howard for finally giving them another suitable African American actor to give awards to, after the whole Jamie Foxx thing hasn’t panned out too well (Stealth, Jarhead).

Biggest Snub: Russell Crowe, CINDERELLA MAN

This is what happens when you attack one too many people, and are surly to one too many Academy voters. He gave a fantastic performance, but Terrence Howard’s grace and charisma stole the gruff and unforgiving Crowe’s nomination.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Felicity Huffman, TRANSAMERICA
• Charlize Theron, NORTH COUNTRY
• Reese Witherspoon, WALK THE LINE
• Keira Knightley, PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
• Judi Dench, MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

Overall Thoughts: The most boring race of the year. Everyone in the world knows that the Academy has decided to give this to Reese, so I’d bet none of the other actresses are even preparing a speech. Strong support for the little scene Transamerica may give the impression that the luminescent Felicity Huffman may pull the upset, but I’m telling you, Reese is Hollywood royalty at this point, and the same way the Academy was waiting to give Julia an Oscar, they’ve been waiting for Reese since Election.

Biggest Surprise: Keira Knightley

This is only a surprise because Domino sucked so badly, and because she’s never really been given the chance to show she could act (Pirates of the Caribbean wasn’t exactly a tour de force of acting, Johnny Depp aside). Though it is worth mentioning that I predicted this only minutes in watching Pride & Prejudice, and that this better mean that Keira becomes more selective about the film’s she makes (a la Scarlet Johansson).

Biggest Snub: Maria Bello, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

She’s been so good lately (The Cooler), and so disrespected. Critics have drooled over her performance in A History of Violence, and too many seemed a shoo in. I think the unwavering support and respect that the Academy has for Judi Dench (I mean has anyone seen Mrs. Henderson Presents? Anyone?) caused them to pass over Bello. But sooner or later (hopefully sooner), she’ll get herself nominated.

Biggest Snub, #2: Gwyneth Paltrow, PROOF

I guess this means she’s not the Academy’s little darling anymore. Paging a humble pie.! Humble Pie, you have a two o’clock with Mrs. Paltrow. Treat her well.

Best Director

• Steven Spielberg, MUNICH
• Ang Lee, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• George Clooney, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
• Paul Haggis, CRASH
• Bennet Miller, CAPOTE

Overall Thoughts: What is with the Academy and its love for Paul Haggis? Crash was amateurishly directed at best, and the only reason it’s garnered the response it has, is because of its great cast. But no matter, this is Ang Lee’s race to lose anyway, and he’s not gonna lose.

Biggest Surprise: Steven Spielberg

Say what you will about the content of the film, but the one thing you can never say is that Munich was poorly directed. Munich was easily the most technically masterful film of the year, and also one of the most thought-provoking. Also, at this point, it should just be mandatory to nominate Spielberg whenever he decides to saddle up and make a drama, because no one else does it better.

Biggest Snub: Fernando Meirelles, THE CONSTANT GARDENER

The most inventive, energetic and smart director working today not named Steven Spielberg. It’s crazy that he got passed over by a hack like Paul Haggis. At least he was recognized for his debut masterpiece City of God a few years back. I’m telling you now, that sometime in the next ten years Fernando Meirelles will win an Oscar for Best Director.

Biggest Snub, #2: Woody Allen, MATCH POINT

It’s hard to judge the merits of a filmmaker that refuses to give us time to breath between his work. Allen does a movie every year, which makes it difficult to focus on a particular film. Yes, Match Point was well done and Allen’s best film in a decade, but more than a few Academy members are probably still sour on his last few films (Anything Else, Hollywood Ending, Curse of the Jade Scorpion).

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Paul Giamatti, CINDERELLA MAN
• George Clooney, SYRIANA
• Matt Dillon, CRASH
• William Hurt, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
• Jake Gyllenhaal, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Overall Thoughts: Finally, the nominated Paul Giamatti. Even though I hated Sideways, his snub for Best Actor last year was one of the most egregious mistakes in Oscar history. Look for him to get the Oscar he so richly deserves. Though due props must be given to Matt Dillon and George Clooney for finally getting over the hump of their leading man good looks and actually convincing us they could act.

Biggest Surprise: William Hurt

I guess ten minutes of screen time is all you need to impress. After all, Judi Dench won in 1998 for her three scenes in Shakespeare in Love.

Biggest Snub: Don Cheadle, CRASH

He’s so good in everything he does, that’s it’s a shame he doesn’t have at least two Oscars by now. His haunting work in Hotel Rwanda should have properly rewarded. Unfortunately, when you’re in an ensemble drama with fifteen parts, it’s hard to single out anyone, and Dillon only got the leg up because he was on the poster.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Rachel Weisz, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
• Frances McDormand, NORTH COUNTRY
• Michelle Williams, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
• Amy Adams, JUNEBUG
• Catherine Keener, CAPOTE

Overall Thoughts: The coolest race of the year (and always my favourite category), as it features five interesting, likeable actresses. Rachel Weisz is the likely winner, but it’s great to see so many smaller actresses get recognized.

Biggest Surprise: Amy Adams

You can probably pin this on Roger Ebert who gave Adams the Charlize Theron in Monster treatment for her work in Junebug. The famous critic pretty much gave her a sponge bath in his review and put her name on the award map. I dig that the Academy gave a flier on an unknown actress in a little seen film. She may prove to be the dark horse in this race, usually the one most notable for upsets (Marisa Tomei, anyone?).

Biggest Snub: Scarlet Johansson, MATCH POINT

She was good, but not that good. She has to prove she can play more than a femme fatale, if she wants to get serious Oscar attention. Doing back to back Woody Allen films is a good start.

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen, MATCH POINT
• George Clooney & Grant Heslov, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
• Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, CRASH
• Stephen Gaghan, SYRIANA
• Noah Baumbach, THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

Overall Thoughts: This race played out exactly like everyone thought it would. The right films were nominated, a rarity in any year. Even though Syriana is a braver script, look for Clooney to get the nod for Good Night, and Good Luck. After all, the Academy loves to give actors a writing Oscar (Matt and Ben, anyone?)

Biggest Surprise: None

Biggest Snub: Cinderella Man

This is what happens when you release a great film too early in a bad year, it gets forgotten about come awards time.

Biggest Snub, #2: The 40-Year Old Virgin

Was it one of the five best written films of the year? Probably not, but the commercial success of the film indicates that it touched a nerve in a lot of people, which warrants mentioning. At least the WGA was brave enough to nominate it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Dan Futterman, CAPOTE
• Josh Olson, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
• Jeffrey Caine, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
• Tony Kushner & Eric Roth, MUNICH
• Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Overall Thoughts: See above. The ten films represented in the two screenplay categories are the ten best films of the year. I congratulate the Academy on recognizing the best of the year, and not forgetting smaller films like A History of Violence, something they have a tendency of doing.

Biggest Surprise: None

Biggest Snub: Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang

This is a personal snub for me, as it was my favourite film of the year. Evocatively written, almost illegally fun to watch, and so obviously written with love, Shane Black’s homage to film noir is my favourite piece of cinema released in 2005. And if I was in charge, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang would be my pick for Best Picture of the year.

Tell me what you all thought of the nominations by leaving a comment. Did you favourite films get recognized? Was your favourite actor snubbed? Let me know…

Bangarang!

Forget the Super Bowl (My pick: Steelers +10). Forget Valentine’s Day. Forget pitchers and catchers reporting. Forget the beginnings of spring. None of it matters. For the next five weeks the only thing that matters is the Academy Awards.

Everything gears up to that night. Magazines, websites, television shows; the media coverage for the Oscars goes into overdrive starting from the announcements of the Oscars tomorrow morning at 5a.m. (My favorite bit of procedure as it always leads to the inevitable bogus, yet good times stories of actors being woken up by their agents to tell them that they’d been nominated. Yeah right, like you would sleep if you thought your name was going to be called.), all the way up to show time on Monday, March 6th, and then through all the post-event coverage from Joan and Melissa to the E! Fashion Police to Entertainment Weekly’s next week wrap-up. All of Hollywood is now on a month long bated breath, waiting to see who will win, who will lose, who will look terrible on the red carpet, and most of all, whose price tag will skyrocket. Yes, it is Oscar time, and The Jay is ready.

Tomorrow marks the beginning of the extensive TheJay.com coverage of the 2006 Academy Awards. Since nothing else of note happens in entertainment in February, I’m going to put all my attention on the Oscars. So, you’ll see no regular poster review, no Actor’s Life pictures, no fawning pieces on Rachel McAdams. For the next five weeks, it’s all Oscars, all the time.

Here is the official schedule of my Oscar coverage, so you can plan your TheJay.com reading, appropriately.

Tuesday, January 31st – Oscar Nomination Reactions

• Immediate thoughts on who got nominated, who got dissed, and how this all affects the show itself.

Friday, February 3rd – Oscar Movie Poster Review

• Reviewing the posters for the five Best Picture nominees, as well as a look back on my favorite Oscar winning movie posters.

Tuesday, February 7th – Oscar, I.O.U.

• The top ten list of actors, writers, directors and movies that in hindsight, should probably give back their Oscar. We’re talking the people and films that failed to live up to their Oscar hype (Mira Sorvino, I’m looking directly at you).

Friday, February 10th – The Jay’s Bizarro Oscars

• This is how the Oscars would look if The Jay was in charge. I’ll give you a hint: Lifetime Achievement Award Winner, Sylvester Stallone.

Tuesday, February 14th – Special Valentine’s Day Surprise

• This may be about the Oscars, it may not (Most likely not, if I’m in trouble and need to post a big love letter to The Lady to apologize for something, like, forcing her to watch American Idol).

Friday, February 17th – The Biggest Oscar Travesties

• I’ll catalog the actors who should have won, the films that deserved to win and all the other ways that Oscar has gotten it wrong.

Tuesday, February 21st – Oscar and The Jay, Through The Years

• A look back at where I was and what I was thinking during each Oscar show of the last fifteen years. This is gonna be a good one, not to be missed.

Friday, February 24th – How To Win An Academy Award

• The official TheJay.com guide to manipulating your way to Oscar gold.

Tuesday, February 28th – The Paul Newman Never Won List

• I’ll breakdown the list of all the best actors and actresses still working today who have never won an Academy Award.

Friday, March 3rd – The Jay’s Official 2006 Oscar Predictions

• I’m going to breakdown who will win, who should win, and my picks for the people who might give the best potential Oscar speeches.

Tuesday, March 7th – Immediate Oscar Breakdown

• Expect my traditional “Things Overheard on the Red Carpet��?, as well as my thoughts on how the night went down, and how my predictions panned out (Expect me to gloat about my Brokeback Mountain Best Picture prediction).

Friday, March 10th – Final 2006 Academy Awards Spectacular

• My final wrap up of the best and worst from Oscar night, and how the awards will shake up the power scales in Hollywood.

I hope you join me throughout the next month, I promise the Oscar overload won’t stop me from doing what I do best: making fun of celebrities.

Bangarang!