I really need to be hired as an official Oscar prognosticator by some reputable news source. I went eight for eight in the big races, and also nailed Best Documentary, Editing, Animated Feature, Cinematography, and Makeup. I’m especially proud of picking the Alan Arkin upset. My only real lapses were Foreign Film (I was banking on a Pan’s Labryinth sweep of the minor categories), and underestimating the tremendous Dreamgirls backlash. Somebody powerful really hates Bill Condon (but likes Jennifer Hudson).

Check any of the other eight million entertainment websites for a detailed recap of everything Oscar, because you’re not getting one here. I wasn’t overly impressed by the show, as I suspected I wouldn’t be, and don’t really want to spend any more time dissecting just how unnecessary the Michael Mann America montage was, or just how lame and unfunny the “Ellen giving Martin Scorsese” a script bit was. Instead, I’m giving you what I always give you. A look at what was on the minds of the celebrities as the walked the red carpet for the biggest night in Hollywood. It’s a little something I like to call…

Things Overheard on the Oscars Red Carpet…

Nicole Kidman: I should never have made out with Charlize Theron’s dress last year. I knew I was gonna catch something.

Jessica Biel: I can’t wait for the day when I’m nominated for Best Actor, um, I mean Best Actress. Dammit! Why do I keep doing that? I really need to lay off the bench press.

George Lucas: Wait, did I ever have a chin? I don’t think so. Maybe I can digitally insert one in post?

Beyonce: I knew I should have had Dakota Fanning kill Jennifer. I don’t know what it would have cost, but it would have been worth it.

Ryan Gosling: This is all so beneath me. I’m going home to Rachel McAdams, like I care if the dude from Battlefield: Earth beats me?

Elisabeth Shue: Wait, why am I here? Am I being belatedly honored for my work in Hide & Seek?

Kate Winslet: Well, this is gonna be an uneventful night for me. Again. Good thing I brought my iPod. (singing to herself) My humps, my humps, my lovely lady lumps…

Jackie Earl Haley: Danny Bonaduce WISHES he looked as good as me.

Forrest Whitaker: This all just goes to show that the key to success in this business is starting your career in Jean Claude Van Damme movies. Maybe if Peter O’Toole had played Tong Po in Kickboxer he’d have won one by now.

Meryl Streep: I love that everyone points out all my nominations but doesn’t mention the fact that I haven’t actually won one since 1983.

Ben Affleck: So I gained all the weight and did the respectable actor part everyone told me I needed to do to earn respect and salvage my career and not only didn’t I get nominated but I STILL get crap for Gigli? Fuck this noise! I’m going home to bang my duck-beaked wife and greenlight Surviving Christmas 2: Attack of the Hanukkah.

Jodie Foster: Wait a second, why does everyone look so pretty and heterosexual? I thought the theme was “Gay Chic”? I wore my Tuesday clothes! So embarrassing…

Jack Nicholson: My head looks like a Trader Joes AA-size egg and I’m still getting the best tang tonight! Who wants to bet me I can nail Helen Mirren without taking my pants off?

Reese Witherspoon: And the “Eat It, Ryan Phillippe! I Look HOT!” Tour keeps rolling on.

The Jay: As does the “Shut UP, Squirrel Chin!” Tour. See you in Woodstock!

Peter O’Toole: Where am I? Who are all you people? Wot’s all dis, then? Are we shooting King Ralph 2? … I am old.

Sherry Lansing: Now, I, Skeletor Sherry, am Master of the Universe! Kneel before your master, Tom Cruise! KNEEL BEFORE ME!!!

Tom Cruise: I will never kneel to you! By the Power of L. Ron, I have the power!

Will Smith: Just keep smiling and laughing and no one will see your pain. It’s ok Will, one day we’ll convince them. One day. Oh HA HA HA! That’s a funny joke, Mr. Scorsese. … love me.

Gwyneth Paltrow: As long I keep putting the attention on the girls, no one will remember that I’ve been a vapid suck whole of talent for the last eight years. Yes, that’s it people, stare at my ugly boobs. STARE!

Samuel L. Jackson: Muthafuckin’ Academy not nominated me for Snakes on a Muthafuckin’ Plane! Shiiiitt. We’ll see how they like it when I toss around a half-naked white woman. Fucking Christina Ricci gets you places in this town, just look at Charlize Theron. … muthafucka!

Helen Mirren: I am a right hot bitch. Who wants to bet me I can nail George Clooney during my acceptance speech and still look classy?

Martin Scorsese: Oy! I got schpielkis in my genectikizoid! Look at Clint over there, looking all smug. I hate him. I HATE HIM! I swear to God, if he beats me again I’m dialing Dakota during the commercial break.

Cameron Diaz: I really can’t be mad at Justin. I mean look at me. Even I know I’m a wreck. Jessica Biel, even with her manly arms and overwhelming aura of butch dykeyness, is still hotter than me. Hell, he’d probably bang bald Britney again before me. I must stop letting myself look like the bad end of a three day coke bender. If Robert Downey Jr. can do it, so can I!

Eddie Murphy: No matter what, at least I look better in a fat suit than Martin Lawrence.

Abigail Breslin: OMG! Was that Dakota? Is she here? Oh no! Oh no! Steven Spielberg’s coming up to me. What if she’s reprogrammed him to be her own personal ninja assassin? I’m young and ever so adorable. I don’t want to die.

Dakota Fanning: Don’t fuck with the Fanning.

Steven Spielberg: Just do what she says and everything will be just fine. … I hope.

Bangarang!

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Best Picture

- BABEL
- THE DEPARTED
- LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- THE QUEEN

Will Win: The Departed - It’s the only film everyone can agree on. Well, at the very least, it’s the only one most people have even seen. This is the weakest crop of Oscar nominees, in terms of box office, in decades. In cases like this, I say go with the movie that has the biggest stars in it. You don’t get any bigger than Nicholson, DiCaprio, Damon and Scorsese.

Should Win: The Queen - Little Miss Sunshine is a cute indie flick, but is in NO way an Oscar movie. Especially not a Best Picture. Please, we learned our lesson with American Beauty. Once burned, twice learned (that Kevin Spacey makes bad movies). Letters From Iwo Jima is a pedigree pick, only here because of the man who directed. Know how I know that? Only twenty people have even seen the damn thing. Babel is a muddled mess of an ensemble film that wasn’t even powerful enough to get Brad Pitt a gimme Best Supporting nomination. Don’t be fooled by pundits who say this could be like Crash. Even Brad is hoping The Departed wins. As for that film, been there done that. With the same director I might add. He should have won for Goodfellas; it’s not The Queen’s fault that people liked Kevin Costner in 1990. The Queen, however, was the best film I saw all year. The most emotional film I saw all year. I learned about things I was unaware of, saw a world I’m not accustomed to seeing, it showcased the best acting performance of the year in Helen Mirren’s titular monarch (more on this later), and it managed to be captivating despite being a story EVERYONE knows. I would be proud to call The Queen the Best Picture of the year.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

- Leonardo DiCaprio, BLOOD DIAMOND
- Ryan Gosling, HALF NELSON
- Peter O’Toole, VENUS
- Will Smith, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
- Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Will Win: Forest Whitaker - The Academy tends to toe the line for the Best Actor race, and Forest has the most amount of shiny plaques. Though don’t be surprised if the Academy decides to follow the Be Old rule and give a goodbye award to Peter O’Toole. He was nominated on name recognition, so who’s to say what people actually seeing the movie could do for his chances.

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, but for The Departed. I don’t know who’s brilliant idea it was to play both Leo films down the middle. He was never going to win for a movie he has to do an accent for. No one gets Oscars for accents, they get them for performances. Leo may be brilliant in Blood Diamond, but I bet the only thing people paid attention to was how well he did the South African accent. But he was brilliant in The Departed, without the help of an Oscar bait accent. The Departed was the first time I truly looked at Leo as a man, not a boy. He not only held his own in the scenes with Jack, I thought he was better. Go back and watch the scenes with Vera Farmiga to see the emotion, intensity and desperation in his eyes and words. If that’s not Best Acting, I don’t know what is. Just a monumental blunder by whoever decided to go with Blood Diamond.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

- Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
- Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
- Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN
- Meryl Streep, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
- Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN

Will Win: Helen Mirren - She gave the undisputed best performance of the year. End of discussion.

Should Win: Helen Mirren - Everyone else is playing for second place.

Best Director

- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, BABEL
- Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED
- Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
- Paul Greengrass, UNITED 93

Will Win: Martin Scorsese - The Departed is his Scent of a Woman, so to speak. It’s not his best work, but we screwed up by not honoring him for those movies, so this is the consolation. The Departed was his most accessible film in years, his highest grossing, and was a welcome return to the mobster-genre he defined over the last few decades. And it’s also what might be the last chance to give him an Oscar. It’s a weak year, with even Clint not bringing his best work to the table. In any other year Marty wouldn’t stand a chance. It’s his time. And if he loses to Eastwood again I will never watch the Oscars again. It’ll be a joke. Martin Scorsese is not Susuan Lucci. He’s Martin fucking Scorsese. Somebody better show him some goddamn respect.

Should Win: Martin Scorsese - Do I even need to explain why?

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

- Alan Arkin, LITLLE MISS SUNSHINE
- Jackie Earl Haley, LITTLE CHILDREN
- Djimon Hounsou, BLOOD DIAMOND
- Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS
- Mark Wahlberg, THE DEPARTED

Will Win: Alan Arkin - There is always one upset in every Academy Awards show, and I think this is it. Remember a few years back when Burt Reynolds was considered a shoo-in for Boogie Nights? There were all those articles going off on Burt’s redemption and return to excellence; he was the nostalgia pick to win for all the great movies he did at the beginning of his career (as opposed to the utter shit he had made recently). And even though “Burt Reynolds, Oscar Winner” sounded far-fetched, we all kind of thought it was, I don’t know, “right” in some way. But he ended up losing to a respected actor at the end of an illustrious career. That’s Eddie Murphy this year. He may be the nostalgia pick. We may all secretly want him to win. But really, Eddie Murphy winning an Academy Award? Please. People LOVED Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine.

Should Win: Eddie Murphy - All that being said, man alive would it rule to see Axel Foley win an Oscar. But it just won’t happen. Do not underestimate the Dreamgirls backlash.

Should Win, Part 2: Ben Affleck - Ditto everything I said about Eddie, but insert Affleck in. He was AWESOME in Hollywoodland. A few more roles like that and we’ll all collectively erase Gigli from the record books. I mean, even Sean Penn made Shanghai Surprise.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

- Adriana Barraza, BABEL
- Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
- Abigail Breslin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS
- Rinko Kikuchi, BABEL

Will Win: Jennifer Hudson - I’m always leery of this category due to its history of unexpected winners. But this year I think the consensus pick will turn out to be the winner. Hudson was just too good. No one else even comes close. She was good enough to erase the American Idol label AND the rookie label. She just knocked it out of the park. She was so good I was actually offended Lakisha Jones sang “And I’m Telling You” on Idol this week. That’s J-Hud’s song, bitch! Back off!

Should Win: Jennifer Hudson - Everyone may be anti-Dreamgirls, but no one is anti-Jennifer Hudson. Suck on this, Beyonce!

Best Original Screenplay

- BABEL
- LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- PAN’S LABRYINTH
- THE QUEEN

Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine - Fine, you all like the movie so much, give them this one. Sheesh. I haven’t heard or seen such rabid support over a mediocre movie since A Beautiful Mind stole the Oscar from Moulin Rouge. Seriously, take a minute and think back to the movie. Besides the acting, which has little to do with the writing, can you remember even one line of dialogue? Are you gonna quote this movie ever? This movie succeeded through casting. Just imagine Dakota Fanning dancing on that stage instead of Abigail Breslin. Would it be nearly as cute? Or would it now be creepy? Yeah, that’s what I thought. And stop encouraging Steve Carell to do movies. He belongs on TV, on The Office, forever.

Should Win: The Queen - How do you make a story that everyone lived through, so compelling and original? By examining the mystery behind the people involved. For all the media attention the Royal Family gets, I doubt many could actually say for sure they know who these people are. Peter Morgan got under the skin of the most overexposed family in the world and created a wholly unique portrayal of what it was really like to be in the middle of the biggest tragedy of the last 25 years other than 9/11. I never in a million years thought I’d care about a bunch of British people grieving over a woman I knew nothing about and had zero feelings for. But I was wrong. I was hooked less than ten minutes into the movie, and Diana doesn’t even die until the third reel. I can’t say enough good things about this script.

Best Adapted Screenplay

- BORAT
- CHILDREN OF MEN
- THE DEPARTED
- LITTLE CHILDREN
- NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Will Win: The Departed - Give Martin Scorsese his best chances in decades at a Best Directing Oscar and we give you this as a reward. I don’t think it’s a better script than Children of Men (and it’s sure not a better actual movie, COM blows The Departed out of the water), but it will win on pedigree. Little Children was too divisive. Notes on a Scandal has zero buzz. And as for Borat, well, I’m not sure the Academy is willing to reward Sacha Baron Cohen for a movie that never felt as if it were actually “written”. But more on this below…

Should Win: Borat - I’d like to say Children of Men, if only because it was my third favorite movie of the year, but I think Borat winning would be better for the Academy, better for the viewing audience, and also, better for the writing industry. Borat winning an Oscar would be a gauntlet thrown down at the feet of lazy writers. Try topping that type of creative genius with your shoddy, high-concept thriller. Borat winning would also be the welcome mat for a new style of filmmaking and be the type of precedent making win that might open the Academy up to edgier movies in the future. I could see movies like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and United 93 and Sin City finally competing for Oscars. Of course, the Academy should want to want all those things. But it doesn’t. So congrats to William Monahan on his win for The Departed. Yawn.

Host: Ellen Degeneres

I say she’s a 5′er. Some land, some clunk, most brush off like lint. Ellen’s never been a thunderously funny comic, the way Chris Rock or Conan O’Brien can be. She’s more like a “keeps-you-tittering” comic. She’ll keep the show moving, she won’t offend anyone, she’ll probably dance, and at no point will I think she’s worse than Whoopi Goldberg. So many people were disappointed with the choice of Ellen, but I’m not sure why. Who else are they gonna get to do it? The entire country knows and likes Ellen. Despite being a lesbian she’s more widely accepted than Chris Rock. And for the most part, considered “safer” than Letterman, Conan and Jon Stewart. The Academy is never going to be daring and put someone like Jim Carrey or Samuel L. Jackson as the host (the way Mtv likes to roll), so it doesn’t much matter anyway.

Of course the person I think should host the Oscars every year is Jay Leno. Everyone knows him, likes him, he can be dirty and edgy when he wants to be, and starting in 2009 he’ll have a lot of free time on his hands. The Oscars need a kowtowing MC and product promoter and that’s what Leno does best. Do I particularly find him funny? No, not at all. But I still think he’d a perfect fit for the show. Boring, but steady. Exactly what the Oscars are.

Look, by this time next week Ellen’s performance won’t really matter. Her jokes won’t matter, her outfit won’t matter, and neither will her blandness. All that will be remembered are the winners. As it should be.

As for the other awards, here are my predictions:

Best Foreign Film – Pan’s Labryinth

Best Animated Feature – Happy Feet

Best Cinematography – Pan’s Labryinth

Best Score – The Queen

Best Song – “Listen” – Dreamgirls

Best Documentary Feature – An Inconvenient Truth

Best Visual Effects – Superman Returns

Best Costume Design – The Devil Wears Prada

Best Makeup – Pan’s Labryinth

Best Film Editing – The Departed

And those are my predictions for the 2007 Academy Awards. Hope you all have a great Oscar Night.

Bangarang!

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As the saying goes, there are two things you never want to see get made, laws and sausages. Whether that’s true or not I won’t speculate, but if I could add one thing to the expression, it would be Academy Awards. Now I know what you must be thinking, “You can’t see how the Oscars are made!” Ah, but you’re wrong. Of all the awards, positions and accolades given out by a body of people, the Academy Awards are easily the most transparent. Even the Mtv Movie Awards have more suspense these days (How could Jennifer Carpenter in The Exorcism of Emily Rose beat Dakota Fanning in War of the Worlds? I can’t believe Spielberg didn’t rig this. Or that Dakota and her preternatural precociousness didn’t have Carpenter killed so as to blunt the awards glut of arch rival Abigail Breslin. No joke guys, I’m afraid of Dakota Fanning.)

The problem isn’t with the nominees, who more often that not are right on the mark. The problem is that the winners are so pre-ordained that if you don’t win your office Oscar pool every year, you just aren’t paying attention. This isn’t like the NCAA tournament where the weird girl from the smelly cubicle can randomly throw darts on her bracket, picks George Mason over Connecticut, and steals your money. For the Oscars, there are real ways to determine who will win. For example, merely keeping an eye out to the state of affairs in Hollywood will cue you in on the Best Picture race.

(The Departed will win because Hollywood is actively shifting back into a period of BIG, story driven movies. After successive years of divisive, small-in-scope, actor-driven winners, the last thing the Academy needs is for the depressing, manipulative Crash-wannabe Babel to take Scorsese’s glory. They want Marty on that wall. They NEED him on that wall!)

The directing Oscar generally matches the Best Picture, and the two writing Oscars are determined mostly from the WGA, and thus are beyond obvious come Oscar night. And absolutely no one cares about the technical awards. Even the costume designers don’t care about their category. The eight awards given to civilians are very much like throwing darts at a bracket, they don’t affect the Oscars in any real historical way, and besides, doesn’t John Williams win every year anyway? For all the arm-chair critics that decry the Oscars for being too long, how about making it like the Golden Globes and only give out awards where the winner is someone we recognize.

So that covers pretty much the entire show, except for the acting. And that’s what this column is going to cover. Over the next 2000 words or so, depending on how many “Little Miss Sunshine, Really?” tangents I go on, I will teach you how to predict the acting Oscar winners. There is a proven formula that I will share with you today.

Some think that the acting categories are merely a popularity contest, the High School student-body president race of the Oscars. Those people are wrong. I know this, the Academy knows this, and most importantly, actors know this. Actors are well aware that there are ways of manipulating the Academy into giving you an Oscar. Ever heard the phrase “Oscar bait” when someone is talking about one of those pretentious December movies that Miramax used to put out? Career decisions are often made not by money, but by how it will affect their relationship with the Academy. It’s a dance, you see. Some are good at it, and dip their way into Oscar gold before their feet even hurt. Others take so long to learn the steps that when they finally figure it out, they can barely do a box-step waltz. But make no mistake, every actor knows the way, and now you will to.

There are six ways to absolutely guarantee an Academy Award for acting. Any one way on its own gives you the edge in your category; any combination of the six will give you front-runner and likely winner-status. Any three put together, and the other four nominees shouldn’t waste their time writing one of those “I’m so humble about all this” speeches that Kate Winslet cries herself to sleep with. Now there are exceptions to this rule, as there are for anything, but these six ways are tried and true.

The Six Ways to Win an Academy Award for Acting

1. Be Fat (a.k.a. Completely Screw Up Your Body)

There is just something so endearing about pretty people gaining weight. It doesn’t even really matter sometimes if you were any good, so long as we can read those charming stories of you stuffing your face with spaghetti. Oh, you are so much like normal people! The Academy loves to reward the heavies (and I don’t mean bad guys). From Charlize in Monster, to De Niro in Raging Bull, gaining weight is one of the best ways to win an Oscar. Here are some recent weight-y winners:

- Charlize Theron – Monster
- Kevin Spacey – American Beauty
- Adrien Brody – The Pianist (For losing a grip of weight, instead of gaining it. Must love the starving ones. Which is odd because, wouldn’t they have looked this way anyway?
- Frances McDormand – Fargo
- Ben Kingsley – Gandhi (Another skinny one)
- George Clooney – Syrianna (last year’s winner)

No one gained a ton of weight this year, so this rule does not apply.

2. Be Challenged (Mentally or Physically, it doesn’t much matter)

Playing “retarded” is the Academy-equivalent of playing drunk. Everyone wants to do it, it’s exponentially more interesting to watch than if you were playing normal or sober, and it gives the (fake) impression that you have compassion for whatever illness you are character has contracted. I don’t know why the Academy likes it so much, but I think it has to do with giving Hollywood the impression that it cares about people, and not just about explosions. I mean it’s gotten to the point that if you have Lupus it’s a guaranteed nomination. The apex of this was 1994, when Tom Hanks won for being “stupid” and Jessica Lange won for being “crazy”. I wonder if somewhere in a talent agency in Beverly Hills there’s not a slew of up and coming actors screaming at their agents to get them roles where they play people oppressed by their ADHD. Oscars, here they come.

A list of recent winners who played “challenged”:

- Angelina Jolie – girl, interrupted
- Jamie Foxx – Ray
- Geoffrey Rush – Shine
- Tom Hanks – Forrest Gump
- Jessica Lange – Blue Sky
- Dustin Hoffman – Rain Man

This would seemingly help Rinko Kikuchi’s chances (she’s deaf in Babel), but I doubt it.

3. Be Old (Dying also helps. As does being near death. Mr O’Toole, take note of this.)

We love young actors because they’re pretty. But we love old actors because they are wise. They get slack for sub-par performances, especially the debonair ones, because they make us remember how great they once were. The Academy (who is still mostly made up of old white guys) loves seeing older actors wipe the floor with younger ones. It makes them feel like they are in control, like they have stopped the wave of time from rolling through and passing them over. These days, if you are over 60 and have at least one good scene in a movie, chances are good you can go ahead and rent a nice dress or a smart-looking tux the first Sunday in March (Gloria Stuart from Titanic is a perfect example of this). And if you’ve never won an Oscar before… congratulations, the statue’s finally yours. Like I said before, it doesn’t much matter if you are the most deserving, people will vote for you because they are worried you will die before you get a chance to win.

Here is a list of recent oldies (but goodies):

- Morgan Freeman – Million Dollar Baby
- Michael Caine – The Cider House Rules
- James Coburn – Affliction (This was a post-mortem win. Or what I like to call a “guaranteed coffin souvenir”.)
- Judi Dench – Shakespeare in Love
- Martin Landau – Ed Wood
- Jack Palance – City Slickers
- Jessica Tandy – Driving Miss Daisy (The ultimate Be Old winner)

I would not be at all surprised if Peter O’Toole steals Forest Whitaker’s thunder. If there’s one thing the Academy likes more than old people, it’s old British people. I’m rooting for this solely to see how drunk he is when he gets up on stage. This could be a trainwreck of head-shaving proportions.

4. Be Ugly

This is somewhat of an offshoot of the Be Fat category, as the same rules apply here. Only, the rules are heightened when you get ugly for an award. Slap a bad nose on, loose some teeth, dress as a boy, have a glorious head wound, anything you can do to de-pretty yourself for the camera. It’s no wonder that Charlize won for Monster, she got fat and she got ugly. The Oscar was hers from day one.

Some recent unpretty winners:

- Charlize Theron – Monster
- Nicole Kidman – The Hours
- Chris Cooper – Adaptation
- Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry
- Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas
- Daniel Day-Lewis – My Left Foot
- George Clooney – Syrianna (though some would argue he wasn’t that ugly)

Will Smith is really the only actor that modified his normal look, but I don’t think that qualifies. Jackie Earl Healy really does look like that, so he gets no points for him being coincidentally awful on the eyes. Abigail Breslin wore a pudgy stomach suit but was still the cutest thing since a litter full of golden retriever puppies wrestled with a pile of rainbows. Helen Mirren didn’t have to do THAT much to look like the Queen, though the fact that a lot of people are getting into her octogenarian-ish good looks and surprisingly perky décolletage may work in her favor yet.

5. Be Owed / Be Needed

Nothing trumps the snub. Oscar voters have snubbed countless fantastic actors, but if they come back and give a fine performance, the Academy will trip over themselves to correct their mistake. Similarly, some actors “need” to win. It’s like in sports, the best players need to win a championship so that their sport can say the best have won. The Oscars are no different. Why do you think Julia Roberts won for Erin Brockovich? That wasn’t nearly the best female performance of the year, yet the Academy practically rushed her on stage so that they could finally say that America’s Sweetheart is an Oscar winner (This is unfortunately why Reese Witherspoon and George Clooney won last year). Sometimes the marketers have more say over the voters. It’s too important for marketers to be able to say “Academy Award Winner Julia Roberts” in trailers, for her not to win. So if you don’t think Eddie Murphy is winning this year, you’re insane. He’s made too much money for too many people for him to not get the award. Hell, Jeffrey Katzenberg practically owes Dreamworks Animation to the former-Axel Foley. Me thinks a favor or two will be called in come Oscar night. Plus, an Eddie Murphy Oscar win makes the existence of Norbit that much more head-scratchingly bad of a career choice. I’d love to see Pluto Nash win an Oscar, if only to so that I can see it used to promote such wonderful pieces of cinematic greatness as Daddy Day Care 2: Daddy Day Camp, The Nuttiest Professor, Showtime 2: Cinemax, and worst of all, Shrek the Third.

Hollywood needs certain actors to have the award, because if a great actor doesn’t have an Oscar it says something negative about how the industry works. Think about the best actors currently alive who don’t have Oscars. The list is pretty small. And lately the Academy has been doing their part to knock people off the list. Morgan Freeman finally got his due, and he was probably the biggest Oscar slight. Julia got hers; Al Pacino finally got his in the early 90’s. Sean Penn and Tim Robbins recently cleared their shelves. As did Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Rachel Weisz. And Renee Zellweger received her Best Supporting apology for losing out in Chicago and Bridget Jones. It’s very simple; the best actors need to be given their proper dues. So if you think the Academy is going to pass up a chance to give Oscars to Helen Mirren, widely considered to be one of the greatest actors working today, well then hell, we might as well just give any random actor an Oscar. Why not Best Supporting Actress Sarah Michelle Gellar? Why not Best Actor Kiefer Sutherland? Actually, that would be kind of cool. Jack Bauer could torture an Arab terrorists whilst thanking his agent.

The final way to guarantee Oscars is a surprisingly obvious, yet at the same time, an unsurprising way to win an acting Oscar. It’s a way that few often go to get their glory, but is, in my mind, the best way to do it.

6. Give the Undisputed Best Performance of the Year

This trumps all five other rules. It doesn’t matter if you are a fat, crazy, old actor who has been nominated five previous times. If you’re competition gave the absolute, no questions asked, best performance of the year, then you don’t have a chance in the world. However this doesn’t happen very often, mostly because Hollywood is the most jealous place on earth and is so stingy with the compliments they’d probably hesitate to give props to Humphrey Bogart if he rose from the dead to cameo in a studio flick. But once in a while, an actor gives a performance that is so good, so right, so legendary, that it is criminal not to award them for it. It would be like Michael Jordan never winning an NBA championship. Or like Albert Einstein never getting a Nobel Prize. The historical performances must get due historical respect. Winning this way is hard, but critics usually make the difference. Roger Ebert said this about Charlize Theron in Monster: “This is one of the greatest performances in the history of the cinema.” When the top critics say this about you, and all the critics groups are giving you their awards, than you have achieved Rule Six. I wish we had one every year, but we don’t. We can’t. But I’m always on the lookout for them; those once in a blue moon performances that changes everything.

Here in my mind, are the recent Undisputed Best Performances of the Year:

- Charlize Theron – Monster (If you noticed, she also satisfied Be Fat and Be Ugly. There was nothing more she could do to help her chances. Not even dying.)
- Tom Hanks – Forrest Gump
- Anthony Hopkins – Silence of the Lambs
- Robert De Niro – Raging Bull
- Marlon Brando – The Godfather
- Jack Nicholson – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest

You’ll notice too that these are always Best Actor performances, not Best Supporting. Also, don’t jump to the conclusion that Forest Whitaker is a lock just because he’s won all the awards lately. He did not give the undisputed best performance of the year. That goes to Helen Mirren. When even Meryl Streep says you’re gonna win, trust the 14-time Oscar nominee in Prada.

So those are the six golden rules for manipulating your way to Oscar gold. Here are five lesser-known rules that sometimes will guarantee you Oscar gold:

1. Be British
2. Be A Kooky Choice For Best Supporting Actor
3. Be in the Best Picture of the Year
4. Be A Real Person
5. Be Jack Nicholson

* We might also be close to a sixth rule of “Be Black”, but since I don’t want Rev. Jesse Jackson as an enemy, we’ll hold off until a Wayans Brother collects a golden boy.

If you use the six major rules to choose the winners on your Oscar ballot, and keep in mind the five lesser rules, you can’t go wrong.

Based on my theory, here are the likely Oscar winners:

– Best Actor: Peter O’Toole (Be Old, Be Snubbed, Be British)
– Best Actress: Helen Mirren (Be The Undisputed Best of the Year, Be British, Be Old),
– Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy (Be Owed, Be Needed)
– Best Supporting Actress: Abigail Breslin (never underestimate the “Be A Kooky Choice For Best Supporting Actor”)

Bangarang!

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BEST PICTURE

- BABEL
- THE DEPARTED
- LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- THE QUEEN

Overall Thoughts: Everyone, including me, picked four out of the five movies, but I doubt anyone suspected that the four sure fire nominees would not include Dreamgirls. Just a stunning snub! The Academy loves Clint, so it’s no great surprise that his Letters took the final spot, but it says volumes about how the Academy views Dreamworks. They didn’t even nominate Bill Condon for Best Director! I saw Dreamgirls just the other day and thought it was a MUCH better movie than Little Miss Sunshine. The former is an electrifying journey through the era of Motown; a movie musical of the highest order and a supremely difficult technical achievement. The latter is an above average studio indie, with characters I’d seen before performed by actors I’ve liked more in other roles. Who knew the adorableness of Abigail Breslin could take a movie so far. R.I.P. Dakota Fanning.

Biggest Surprise: None, really. Each film has won major awards this season (Sunshine just picked up the PGA Award, which by the way, has predicted the Best Picture Winner 11 out of the last 17 years. Interesting…). The only surprise here is the amount of supposedly “Oscar worthy” films that missed the boat. Children of Men, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Good Shepherd, Dreamgirls, World Trade Center, Little Children, Bobby (just kidding) and Borat all had early buzz but could not get over the voting hump. The only film I’m truly sorry wasn’t nominated was Children of Men, my third favorite film of the year, and a picture of emotional distance far superior than Babel.

Biggest Snub: Dreamgirls, like it could be anything else. From the moment this project was announced it was on the short list for the Oscar. Critics went out of their way to slobber on it. Even though I thought it lagged in the second half, I would still have put it in the top group. It’s the type of movie that just gets nominated. But audiences thought differently. Dreamgirls is not doing as well as it should be at the box office. I’m not entirely sure what that’s due to (an all black cast, a general malaise with regards to musicals, Jamie Foxx), but it just goes to show that the silent majority in the Academy Awards voting is the general audience. Not even a surprise win at the Golden Globes could silence the collective “whatever” of America. Telling, that.

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BEST DIRECTOR

- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, BABEL
- Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED
- Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
- Paul Greengrass, UNITED 93

Overall Thoughts: A fine class of directors who all better get out of Marty’s way if they know what’s good for them. If anyone besides Scorsese wins this race they will forever be the Robin Williams* (EDITED*) who stole Burt Reynolds’ only shot at Oscar gold. They will be the new Kevin Costner (who stole Scorsese’s last best chance at Oscar gold, when his Dances With Wolves work won over Goodfellas). How can any self-respecting Academy voter not give the award to the best dramatic filmmaker of the last fifty years, who HAS NEVER WON BEFORE? If Scorsese loses, I’m gonna come at the Academy like a spider monkey.

Biggest Surprise: Paul Greengrass. This looks to me like a “you made a great movie, but it’s too soon to nominate a 9/11 movie so we’re nominating you here as consolation”. United 93 is an exceedingly well-made movie, and when watched, it is quite noticeable how much effort must have been put in to make the narrative coherent and compelling. I applaud the nomination, and agree with the imaginary sentiment I stated above. If United 93 was ever going to be recognized by the Academy, here’s where it would have happened.

Biggest Snub: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls. What else does this man need to do to win an Oscar? He got the performance of a lifetime out of Jennifer Hudson. He single-handedly revived Eddie Murphy’s career. He finally showed the world why Beyonce is the real deal. And he took the film to picture when no one else in the last 25 years could. And also, it was really good. I don’t know, maybe he needed to put some Nazi’s in the picture? Or Abigail Breslin doing her Little Miss Sunshine pageant routine? Yikes, what a travesty.

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BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

- Leonardo DiCaprio, BLOOD DIAMOND
- Ryan Gosling, HALF NELSON
- Peter O’Toole, VENUS
- Will Smith, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
- Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Overall Thoughts: This is the exact group of men that were expected to be nominated. I’m happy for Ryan Gosling, an actor I feel is at the top of the game. Let’s hope his dark horse nomination leads him to make more marketable films. He could very easily be The Next, just like his Notebook co-star Rachel McAdams. Generally though, there are no surprises here. Whitaker is the frontrunner and has been since the start. He’s taken most every critics prize, including the Golden Globe, and I expect him to win here, too. But he better deliver a damn good speech. I don’t wanna hear him stumbling like he did at the Globes. I want him to man up, take the podium and expound on the ups and downs of his career. Most of all, and this might just be a pipe dream, I want him to mention his stellar work in Bloodsport. Because when I saw him chasing Jean Claude Van Damme down the streets of Hong Kong I thought to myself, “Now there goes a future Oscar Winner.”

Biggest Surprise: That Leonardo didn’t push to be nominated for The Departed over Blood Diamond. I think he would have had a better chance with the Scorsese movie, than the one where he tries on an ill-fated South African accent. I haven’t seen the flick, so I really shouldn’t comment, but he’d have to be explosively good for me to not to think he’s the most American South African I have ever seen.

Biggest Snub: None

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BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

- Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
- Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
- Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN
- Meryl Streep, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
- Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN

Overall Thoughts: The most dignified race of the night, with three high class actresses, one classic in the making and Penelope Cruz. We all know that Helen Mirren is taking this award, so there really isn’t any tension in this category, but it will still be fun to see Judi Dench and Meryl Streep play the gracious loser card. In the game of “Helen deserved this, not me” I’ll take Meryl plus the points. Also, is it too soon to start calling Kate Winslet the Susan Lucci of the movies? Somebody get this girl into a a crippled Holocaust survivor movie and quick!

Biggest Surprise: None, though can you believe Penelope Cruz is actually living up to her early promise? Am I still allowed to call her “Box Office Poison” now that she’s an Oscar Nominee? (Looking at her imdb resume…) Judges ruling? YES!

Biggest Snub: None

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BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

- Alan Arkin, LITLLE MISS SUNSHINE
- Jackie Earl Haley, LITTLE CHILDREN
- Djimon Hounsou, BLOOD DIAMOND
- Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS
- Mark Wahlberg, THE DEPARTED

Overall Thoughts: I hate this category. Where’s Ben Affleck? Where’s Alec Baldwin? Where’s Brad Pitt? Where’s Michael Sheen? Nothing against any of the actors nominated, especially Wahlberg (the only guy who truly deserves the nod), but far too many worthy actors were overlooked here. This might have been the toughest race of the year; I personally was pulling for four guys who didn’t get nominated, which says a lot about the volume of high-quality roles for men in 2006. I think Eddie’s gonna take it because he’s the nostalgia pick, but deep down I hope Wahlberg wins. He rocked it hard in The Departed; I remember walking out of the movie thinking that he had out-acted Damon, DiCaprio, Sheen and Jack. Plus, seriously, Dirk Diggler NEEDS to win an Oscar. There’s just certain things this universe needs to make happen.

Biggest Surprise: Jackie Earl Haley. Where did this guy come from? Screw Eddie, this is easily the comeback story of the year (and possibly of the last decade). To put his career nosedive and resurgence into perspective, it would be like Tara Reid getting nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2016. Though I’d pay to hear that acceptance speech. “I’d like to thank Grey Goose, Red Bull, my agent, the door man at Prey, my idiot Plastic Surgeon…”

Biggest Snub: To win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor you need one scene where you blow everyone away. That’s all it takes. Wahlberg and Arkin have one. I bet Hounsou and Earley do. But Eddie Murphy doesn’t have one. Though he’s quite good in the movie, there wasn’t a single moment where I was watching him and thought “Man, he is killing everyone.” However, Ben Affleck had that scene. When he’s eviscerating Diane Lane for keeping him in the Superman suit and not helping to advance his career, I was stunned by talent. I’m a big Affleck supporter, but even I was skeptical about the early buzz on his performance. It was all earned, and him not being recognized for getting his career back on track is a damn shame. It’s Ben Affleck! Give the man a nomination as a reward for coming back from the depths of Gigli Hell!

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BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

- Adriana Barraza, BABEL
- Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
- Abigail Breslin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS
- Rinko Kikuchi, BABEL

Overall Thoughts: This category is always the kookiest of the bunch. Abigail Breslin’s nomination is proof of that. She was the cutest thing I saw onscreen all year (Salma Hayek nude in Ask the Dust notwithstanding), but Oscar worthy? I don’t know. But none of it matters, because this race is already over. Jennifer Hudson deserves the Oscar like George Bush deserves a kick in the junk. Like Dan Marino deserves a Super Bowl ring. Like Rosie O’Donnell deserves a staph infection. When she belted out “And I Am Telling You” it was a call to the Academy to start engraving her name on the statue. She blew the doors out on every other actor last year not named Helen Mirren. For anyone that has ever doubted the merit or necessity of American Idol, this is the answer. To find artists like Jennifer Hudson.

Biggest Surprise: Abigail Breslin. In related news, Dakota Fanning has fired her agent, manager, publicist and Mother, and was last seen running down Sunset Boulevard, weeping into her Hello Kitty backpack and shouting obscenities at passing motorists.

Biggest Snub: Mario Bello, World Trade Center. She keeps doing fine work and keeps getting snubbed by the Academy. Is this penance for scarring the retina’s of everyone who watched her hold Bill Macy’s old man junk in The Cooler? You’d think getting down with Viggo Mortensen in the hottest sex scene of 2005 (A History of Violence) would even things out. I guess Bill Macy’s man meat is more career-damaging than we thought.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCSREENPLAY

- BABEL
- LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- PAN’S LABRYINTH
- THE QUEEN

Overall Thoughts: I can’t believe Paul Haggis (Letters from Iwo Jima) has ANOTHER Oscar nomination! I swear on the name of all that is holy and good (aka my TiVo), if he wins over Peter Morgan and The Queen, I will never write a screenplay again in my entire life. That entire artistic medium will be ruined for me. And let’s not even get into Babel, a script that was bloated with emotional clichés, had no central narrative and was underwritten despite it’s exhausting two and a half hour length. My film student loyalty is to The Queen, my favorite film of the year, but my Geek loyalty is to Pan’s Labyrinth, if only to see the director of Hellboy win an Oscar. If Guillermo Del Toro wins for Pan’s and takes Best Foreign Film he will be the big winner of the night, no matter which film wins Best Picture. I can’t believe the director of Blade 2 has the chance to be the star of the night. Who doesn’t love the Academy Awards?

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

- BORAT
- CHILDREN OF MEN
- THE DEPARTED
- LITTLE CHILDREN
- NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Overall Thoughts: Easily my favorite category of the entire show. All five films are eminently deserving of the award; all five films are fantastic pieces of writing, crafted by tremendous writers. The train wreck lover in me wants to see Borat win, especially after Cohen was snubbed for Best Actor (even though I wasn’t a fan of the actual movie you have to reward the creation of the character, which is easily the most original since Napoleon Dynamite). Plus, who doesn’t want to hear Cohen deliver another acceptance speech? What’s the over/under on anal air pocket talk at the Oscars, +5? I like that spread. Children of Men, despite being written by a conference room full of writers (five in all), was electrifying, tense, cohesive, action-packed, filled with truth and generally awesome in its depiction of a world gone crazy. The Departed pulled off the Herculean task of giving complex, three-dimensional roles to more than ten different people (and with Jack sucking the life force of any actor he faces, the odds were not in their favor). I haven’t seen Little Children or Notes on a Scandal, but their writers, Todd Field and Tom Perrota and Patrick Marber, respectively, are enormously gifted. I’d be happy to see any of the films here honored, which makes the race doubly fun to follow.

I just wish all the races this year were like that.

Here are my early predictions: The Departed, Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson, Martin Scorsese, Pan’s Labryinth, Borat.

Tell me what you all thought of the nominations by leaving a comment. Did you favorite films get recognized? Was your favorite actor snubbed? Let me know…

Bangarang!

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Keeping in mind film history and tradition, what was the most important film of the year?

If you say anything other than Rocky Balboa you are lying to yourself.

What else would it be? Pirates 2? In ten years no one will care how many box office records an effete Johnny Depp broke. Casino Royale? We switch Bonds every ten years. No matter how blond, buff, grizzled the new one is or how many kicks to the junk he can absorb (like the coach in Beavis and Butthead), Casino Royale doesn’t warrant that much attention. Borat? The movie itself isn’t nearly as fun as the character, who by the way is starting to wear thinner than my 1987 AYSO windbreaker.

The answer is Rocky Balboa. The final chapter in an illustrious film franchise. The return of a cinema icon. The 30th anniversary of a scrappy boxing movie winning the Oscar for Best Picture (and not to get mushy, but also our hearts). The final shot of glory for one of film history’s most successful screen heroes. Even if the film is terrible, you must admit that Rocky Balboa brings more to the table than any other film released this year.

For this, and for the following reasons, Rocky Balboa should win the Oscar for Best Picture. Now I’ll admit out of the gate, that as of this writing I have not seen the movie. So this is all conjecture. If the film is terrible, this post will look pretty stupid. But I don’t think it will be (and critics seem to agree). I think it’s going to be the perfect final chapter in one of my favorite film franchises of all time. I think it’s going to be a great last shot from one of my favorite actors. And I doubt that I will love any film more this year, than Rocky Balboa.

More reasons why Rocky should win:

- The original Rocky won the Oscar for Best Picture. Many critics are saying that Rocky Balboa is a spiritual brother to that first film. That it’s a personal movie, not merely a ramp up to a big fight. If it’s being considered a partner to the original film, and the original film won the Oscar, shouldn’t this film at least get a NOMINATION?

- Rocky is an enduring cinematic tradition. And why wouldn’t we honor tradition? The series has been beloved for decades, has entertained millions, brought fathers and sons together, united an ever-broken sports city (Philadelphia), practically invented the formula for the modern day sports movie, and introduced the world to the 2nd most important action hero of the last half decade (the first being Arnold).

- We watch the films with friends. We watch them on Independence Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas with our families. We watch the random TNT Sunday marathons from end to end. We listen to the soundtrack to get pumped for the gym, for a meeting, for a big date, or for anything else that requires that extra bit of push only Survivor’s “Eye of the Tiger” can provide – who doesn’t want to shadowbox after seeing a Rocky movie? For all the things the Rocky movies have brought us, doesn’t this new one deserve some awards consideration?

- Rocky Balboa is the best active movie icon in cinema. He’s like the Brett Farve of the movies. Sure, he may throw a lot more interceptions than he used to. Sure, the young players may look at him like a dinosaur. Sure his cameo in There’s Something About Mary was more awkward than my last Chrismukkah party. But on any given Sunday, he can make you believe.

- Rocky, like Brett, can transport you back in time; to 1985 when you watched him defeat Ivan Drago (“You see? You see? He’s not a machine, he’s a man!”) and single-handedly ended the cold war. To 1982, when you first watched him fight Thunderlips (the ultimate male), and you thought for the first time “Hey, wrestling. That’s cool. I’m gonna go body slam my little brother!” To all the other times you watched the movies over and over again, just to cheer yourself up.

- And besides, he’s all we have left of the old movie icons. Arnold has Governatored himself out of the movies, so you can kiss a T4 goodbye. Mel Gibson has sugartitted himself out of any shot at returning to Martin Riggs. Indy 4 is NEVER going to happen. Eddie Murphy hasn’t said “fuck” onscreen in 15 years, so there’s zero interest in seeing him lace up for another Beverly Hills Cop movie. And as for Bruce Willis? Live Free or Die Hard looks like any other mediocre action movie Bruce has put out in the last decade. And any Die Hard where Bruce doesn’t rock the toupee is not a Die Hard I’m interested in. But Rocky is back doing what we love, and he doesn’t look stupid doing it. It actually looks like a movie that respects the traditions of the character we’ve grown to love so much. It actually looks like a movie made for passion, not another paycheck. Hell, it actually looks like a good idea. So why aren’t we celebrating Sylvester for this triumph? He should get the Oscar simply for not screwing it up.

- Rocky is an enduring metaphor of America and its values. Not to be jingoistic or overly patriotic, but don’t we want to honor a movie like that in a time like this? Isn’t it important to remember the old American ways of grit, determination, hard work and triumph of the will that Rocky so clearly demonstrates? Wouldn’t Rocky Balboa be the perfect film to unite our country, if only for two hours? The Best Picture winner is, if nothing else, supposed to be the most important movie of the year. I argue that for this country, Rocky Balboa is our most important movie.

- Sylvester Stallone wrote, starred in and directed the movie. The Academy loves to see actors multi-task. Here’s a partial list of the movies directed by actors that have won Best Picture: Braveheart, A Beautiful Mind, Million Dollar Baby, Dances With Wolves, Unforgiven, Ordinary People. And another list of films that were nominated for Best Picture: Goodnight And Good Luck, Lost in Translation, Mystic River, In The Bedroom, Life Is Beautiful, Apollo 13, Quiz Show, A Few Good Men, Bugsy, Prince of Tides.

- Stallone is an aging star looking for one final send-off. The Academy, like audiences, eats that stuff up. Look at Clint Eastwood. He was a fading star who decided to go behind the camera, made Unforgiven, and the Academy jumped at the chance to honor a man who had entertained them for so long. Why aren’t we looking at Stallone the same way? Sure, Stallone and Eastwood are not the same. Clint has directed many more well-received movies, and appeared in a great many more. But Stallone has entertained us just the same. I can count at least 10 movies of his that are action classics (the first four Rocky’s, the first two Rambo’s, Cliffhanger, Victory, Demolition Man and most important of all, Over the Top). And don’t forget that Stallone wrote all six Rocky’s and directed four of them, and wrote the majority of his action movies. I think we could be seeing the beginning of Stallone’s Eastwood-phase; all the more reason to honor him the same way.

- The Rocky franchise is fun. Watching Rocky Balboa is going to be fun. When was the last time you had any fun watching a Best Picture Winner? Crash made me want to punch a homeless guy on the street. Million Dollar Baby was a like a two hour wrist cutting. Return of the King was an exercise in ass torture (and felt much more like something we needed to watch, as opposed to something we actually wanted to). Chicago was…well, Chicago. And A Beautiful Mind may have been more depressing than Schindler’s List, but I wouldn’t know because I hanged myself from the balcony of the Cinerama Dome just to avoid watching the third act. The last time the Academy gave its prize to a movie that was actually “fun to watch” was Gladiator in 2000. And before that, was Braveheart in 1996. That’s two out of the last eleven! We’re due for a crowd pleaser. The last thing the Academy wants is to send the message that only dour films have a shot on the grand prize. The winner this year needs to be an uplifting film. And the Rocky movies are, if nothing else, uplifting.

- You can’t watch this trailer, with the incomparable Bill Conti score, the hint of the training montage, Rocky punching the meat, running up the steps and stepping into the ring, and not be excited. To not feel pumped up and ready to go? It’s just not possible.

Seriously, what else is out there that is really worth getting behind? Best Picture winners have a passionate support group behind them. I’m not sure there’s a single movie in contention that everyone uniformly loves, or has any real, undying passion towards. Let’s go through the list:

Babel: Too muddled, too international, too much of a love/hate movie.

Bobby: Directed by Emilio Estevez? Please…

The Departed: Too violent and not nearly as good as Scorsese’s past work (which it is unfortunately being compared to). Marty will finally get his Best Director Oscar, and that will be the film’s prize.

Dreamgirls: Does anyone really want this film to win? If it does, in five years, won’t we all look at the film the way we do Chicago and not remember a single standout thing about it? And there’s also way too much in-fighting going on between the cast. The Academy does not see kindly to that.

Letters From Iwo Jima: Suffers from the baggage of Eastwood’s failed Flags of Our Fathers.

Little Miss Sunshine: The reviews and the box office are the prize for this indie darling.

Pursuit of Happyness: Not even the absurdly likeable Will Smith can drag this schmaltzfest to Oscar glory.

The Queen: A remarkable film, but when was the last time a “British” movie won the Oscar? I’ll save you the time. It was Chariots of Fire in 1981 (which is considered one of the lowest-quality winners of all time).

United 93: Impersonal, not spectacular enough, and trades too much on the inherent emotions of the material.

World Trade Center: We’re all glad Oliver Stone calmed down, but there isn’t a chance in hell the Academy gives the Oscar to a member of the 1st bunch of 9/11 flicks, especially one directed by Stone. A 9/11 film will win the award one day, but not for another ten or fifteen years.

So really, how inconceivable is it that Rocky deserves to AT LEAST stand alongside four of these movies? If the film is good, which a lot of critics are starting to say it is, and audiences fall in love they way they have with the character before, then the film should absolutely be considered for the Oscar. Secretly, if you were watching the Oscars, and saw Rocky Balboa up there with four other movies, wouldn’t you be secretly rooting for it to win? Wouldn’t that be kind of cool? Wouldn’t you rather see a crowd-pleasing movie like Rocky Balboa win, than a Babel? Or a Dreamgirls. I know I would.

Think about how great it would be to see Stallone up there accepting the Oscar for Best Picture. To see his determination to make this movie rewarded. To hear him say stuff like: “This is the greatest moment in my entire career. I’ll cherish this honor. Thank you for supporting me and supporting Rocky for all these years. It means the world to me.” While he tries not to cry? You’re telling me you wouldn’t want to see that? I don’t know about you, but I watch the Oscars for the moments. And the chance to see a moment like that is too great to pass up.

But in reality, the film doesn’t stand a chance. I know that. Academy voters would never seriously consider nominating a sequel to a franchise that has degraded in quality to such a degree (i.e. Rocky V), let alone a fifth sequel.

But they’re kidding themselves.

Imagine you’re an Academy voter. You come home from a long day at the office, and a pile of Academy screeners are waiting for you. You decide to watch one, so you start skimming through them. Here’s what I’m guessing you’d be thinking: “Ok, let’s see, gotta a multi-story drama about isolation, disappointment and Cate Blanchett dying on the floor of an Indian village. Pass. Got a musical starring Jamie Foxx and Beyonce. What else? A two-hour tour inside the minds of the British royal family. No thank you. Whoa, wait, Rocky Balboa? Really? Sweet!! I am SO watching that!”

And you know that’s exactly what would happen. You’d put it in and two hours later you’d be smiling ear to ear and rooting for Rocky to pull it out one last time. And then you’d take out your ballot and vote for Babel, because you suck, and you don’t want to be the guy who voted for Rocky 6.

And that’s just not fair.

If people like the movie, if critics like the movie, if it does well at the box office, why wouldn’t it be thought of as one of the best films of the year? It’s ROCKY for god sakes! Show some respect. I am going to be there on opening day. I’m gonna cheer on Stallone and his last shot at glory. I’m gonna be proud to like the movie. And I will defend its merits till my they pry the bandwith from my cold, dead hands.

Rocky Balboa should win the Oscar for Best Picture. And I defy you to prove me wrong.

Bangarang!