UPDATE: Nailed all of my predictions, and would have picked Matt, too, had I known they were going to a Top 13. That makes me 10 for 12 (or 13), with 4 of my 6 Early Favorites still in the race. I am an American Idol predicting machine! Check back next week for the first TiVo Multi-Bloop Ratings, and my early pick for Season 8 Champion.
ORIGINAL POST:
We have arrived at the mysterious Wild Card Round, with nine (obvious) finalists set, and three to go. But who will the 3 be? I’m gonna walk you through it, Clue-style.
First we must look at the 9 finalists and where they fall in the American Idol Stereotype Hierarchy:
Alexis Grace: White, spunky pop-rocker
Michael Sarver: White, burly soul man
Danny Gokey: White, Archuleta V.2
Allison Iraheta: Latin, GIANT-voiced child
Kris Allen: White, Pretty Boyband canon fodder
Adam Lambert: White, Over-sexed “Rocker”
Lil Rounds: Black, BBV
Scott MacIntyre: White, Blind Guy
Jorge Nunez: Latin, Mildly-annoying Latin singer
Looking at that list, I notice two things.
1. I picked 7 out of the 9 people in that group, messing up only on Kris Allen (who I liked, anyway) and Jorge Nunez (who I didn’t pick because I sometimes forget screen time in the semi-finals=Top 12. Also, I forget that American audiences are stupid.)
2. There’s juuuuust a bit too much Caucasian on that list. Sure, this is traditionally a Wonder Bread-heavy show, but TPTB on Idol always like to have a little Minority Flavor to boost their fringe demos.
So now let’s break down the Wild Card contenders one-by-one, judging them not on their talent, because that’s not what this round is about, but by their position as a pawn in the American Idol Ratings Machine. Remember: the Judges are picking 3 kids from a group of 8 that they chose, which means they believe any of the 8 could:
1. Win the whole show
2. Market to a particular niche
3. Bring in the ratings
You’ll notice none of those were: “Is Talented”
Another quick thing to keep in mind: the Top 12 is traditionally made up of 6 Guys and 6 Girls. Right now we stand at 6 Guys and 3 Girls. So the judges are either picking ALL girls to hit their quota, or they’re picking 1 Guy at most. Bear that in mind when I slice up Matt Giraud.
VON SMITH: They’ve been pimping him since Jump Street, feeding Simon the choice cuts and Extreme Makeovering his douche personality. But don’t we already have a cute bruny guy (Kris Allen)? And a mildly annoying singer (Jorge Nunez)? Someone utterly confused by his own sexuality (Adam Lambert)? And a charity case (Scott MacIntyre)? Also, not to be forgotten, we’re uber-heavy on the Vanilla Men. Von is Gone.
RICKY BRADDY: Virtually non-existent up until the moment he stepped on stage to sing in the semi-finals. Still mostly non-existent. His only chance lies in the fact that the choice is out of our hands. I think Danny, Scott and Kris take his votes every week, making him a pointless choice. Unless Simon wants some decoys to keep Lil Rounds around, Braddy is Gone.
MATT GIRAUD: Moderate coverage during auditions, extended looks during Hollywood Week and given the big dog song for semi’s (Coldplay “Viva La Vida). Too bad he muffed the job by being a shaky, whiny, Jason Segel during the naked break-up scene in Forgetting Sarah Marshall on stage. If the Top 9 weren’t white-heavy, he’d be a lock. But because it is, and because he has no real shot and winning OR selling records, Giraud is Gone.
ANOOP DESAI: Which leaves us with the only non-Caucasian guy in the Wild Card round. And the only guy who has even a remote shot of making the Top 12. He’s Indian, giving him a supes totes leg up, niche audience-wise. He has a fun name to say, which makes Randy happy. And Slumdog Millionaire has turned the world on its Jai Ho ear. If Idol is going for an imbalanced Top 12 (which I think they are), Anoop Dog WILL be in the house.
JESSE LANGSETH: She has one great thing on her side: she has already proved that she can win in a sing off. Her voice is great, looks fantastic, preternaturally poised like Melinda Doolittle when she finally gave up the grift on her “shyness”, has a kid (which is the de rigueur prop for the Girls this year), and generally carries herself like a Top 12-er. I like her a lot, but again, the spunky Caucasian Mom slot has already been taken by Alexis, which means: Langseth is Gone.
JASMINE MURRAY: If there’s one thing American Idol loves it’s a BBV (Big Black Voice). If there are two things American Idol loves, it’s TWO BBV’s. Jasmine is some Beyonce shit right there, ultra-current, marketable and talented. And she’ll keep Lil Rounds honest. Jasmine is IN.
TATIANA DEL TORO: I’m still not completely sure if TPTB keep bringing her back for ratings, or because they actually believe in her promise. She undoubtedly has an amazing instrument, but girl crazy like Margot Kidder off-meds. Wouldn’t she completely destroy the group performances? And whine it up each week, blubbering over every critique and wasting Ryan’s precious number repeating time? Does anyone out there believe she could be a successful solo artist? She’s a HAYUGE ratings grab, but Idol just took out the mockery trash with Normund Gentle. Me thinks they asked the garbagemen to swing back around one more time. Tatiana is Gone.
MEGAN CORKREY: Which leaves us with my Special Needs BOOF. Her voice is totes-pre-meltdown Whinehouse, her voice is unique, her face is flawless, she’s ODD (which Idol loves. Not crazy, like Tatiana, but odd. See: Overmyer, Amanda), and she will be a polarizing performer every week. Also, she’d be the total Dark Horse of the Girls. Think about it: Alexis Grace is the Brooke White, which means Gone, Jasmine is too raw a talent, which means Gone, Lil Rounds isn’t Fantasia and we already HAVE Mary J. Blige, which means GONE, so why couldn’t it be Megan and Danny in the Final 2?
So my picks are: Anoop, Jasmine Murray and Megan Corkrey.



That would give the Top 12 two more minorities, two more unique looks, two more strong vocalists (and Megan) and one absolute contender for the crown (Megan again). Also, the hot quotient would be raised by a factor of ten (did I mention Corkrey is BOOF?).
That’s a Top 12 I’d like to watch. And the Top 12 I hope we get.
Bangarang!